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341									
342																
343<article id="post-153478"  class="post-content post-153478 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
344
345	
346	
347	<header class="entry-header">
348
349		<span class="screen-reader-text">Why I am not writing off Reform</span>
350
351					<h2 class="entry-title">
352				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/27/why-i-am-not-writing-off-reform/" rel="bookmark">Why I am not writing off Reform</a>
353			</h2>
354		
355				<div class="entry-meta">
356			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/27/why-i-am-not-writing-off-reform/" title="08:37" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-27T08:37:08+01:00" pubdate>27/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
357<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/27/why-i-am-not-writing-off-reform/#comments" class="comments-link" >648 Comments</a></h5>
358		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
359			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
360
361	<div class="entry-summary">
362		<p>Potentially we are nearly 3 years away from the next general election and a lot can happen and the government is at the mercy of the whims and wars of the Ayrshire hotelier currently residing in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. TSE Site notice &#8211; I am currently on holiday.</p>
363	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
364
365	<footer class="entry-footer">
366			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
367</article><!-- #post-## -->
368											
369<article id="post-153488"  class="post-content post-153488 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
370
371	
372	
373	<header class="entry-header">
374
375		<span class="screen-reader-text">Welcome to the Dummymander</span>
376
377					<h2 class="entry-title">
378				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/26/welcome-to-the-dummymander/" rel="bookmark">Welcome to the Dummymander</a>
379			</h2>
380		
381				<div class="entry-meta">
382			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/26/welcome-to-the-dummymander/" title="06:42" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-26T06:42:05+01:00" pubdate>26/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
383<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/robert/" title="View all posts by robert" rel="author">robert</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/26/welcome-to-the-dummymander/#comments" class="comments-link" >520 Comments</a></h5>
384		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
385			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
386
387	<div class="entry-summary">
388		<p>A dummymander is just like a gerrymander… only instead of it gaining you Congressional Districts, it actually loses them. First, a quick primer. The perfect gerrymander involves having one Congressional District that is -say- 90% your opponent, and 10% you. While the remaining Congressional Districts are all around you +20 percentage points. This ensures that (a) you will win a completely disproportionate number of Congressional Districts, and (b) that your seats will be relatively safe. Whatever happens at a national&#8230;</p>
389<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/26/welcome-to-the-dummymander/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
390	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
391
392	<footer class="entry-footer">
393			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
394</article><!-- #post-## -->
395											
396<article id="post-153470"  class="post-content post-153470 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
397
398	
399	
400	<header class="entry-header">
401
402		<span class="screen-reader-text">Reform voters are the most likely to believe they have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister</span>
403
404					<h2 class="entry-title">
405				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/reform-voters-are-the-most-likely-to-believe-they-have-what-it-takes-to-be-prime-minister/" rel="bookmark">Reform voters are the most likely to believe they have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister</a>
406			</h2>
407		
408				<div class="entry-meta">
409			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/reform-voters-are-the-most-likely-to-believe-they-have-what-it-takes-to-be-prime-minister/" title="16:02" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-25T16:02:08+01:00" pubdate>25/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
410<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/reform-voters-are-the-most-likely-to-believe-they-have-what-it-takes-to-be-prime-minister/#comments" class="comments-link" >257 Comments</a></h5>
411		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
412			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
413
414	<div class="entry-summary">
415		<p>You have to admire the self confidence of Reform voters, I am the last person in the universe to criticise others for possessing some self confidence. This polling fits in with other polling which says Reform voters believe they are in touch with most voters compared to other parties. I am in the 19% who say they would make a very bad Prime Minister. I would be perpetually apologising for my colourful metaphors and sense of humour. I&#8217;d also be&#8230;</p>
416<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/reform-voters-are-the-most-likely-to-believe-they-have-what-it-takes-to-be-prime-minister/">
416 Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
417	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
418
419	<footer class="entry-footer">
420			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
421</article><!-- #post-## -->
422											
423<article id="post-153480"  class="post-content post-153480 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
424
425	
426	
427	<header class="entry-header">
428
429		<span class="screen-reader-text">Is Nigel Farage putting his money where his mouth is?</span>
430
431					<h2 class="entry-title">
432				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/is-nigel-farage-putting-his-money-where-his-mouth-is/" rel="bookmark">Is Nigel Farage putting his money where his mouth is?</a>
433			</h2>
434		
435				<div class="entry-meta">
436			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/is-nigel-farage-putting-his-money-where-his-mouth-is/" title="08:06" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-25T08:06:25+01:00" pubdate>25/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
437<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/is-nigel-farage-putting-his-money-where-his-mouth-is/#comments" class="comments-link" >417 Comments</a></h5>
438		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
439			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
440
441	<div class="entry-summary">
442		<p>If Nigel Farage is right then the 15.5 on a 2026 general election represents stonking value although I did a 2026 general election at 20s just eleven days ago. I suspect Nigel Farage is saying this to portray Andy Burnham as frit when there is no early election, as I noted yesterday the MRPs should end any talk of an early election. TSE Site notice &#8211; I am currently on holiday.</p>
443	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
444
445	<footer class="entry-footer">
446			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
447</article><!-- #post-## -->
448											
449<article id="post-153476"  class="post-content post-153476 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
450
451	
452	
453	<header class="entry-header">
454
455		<span class="screen-reader-text">These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election</span>
456
457					<h2 class="entry-title">
458				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/" rel="bookmark">These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election</a>
459			</h2>
460		
461				<div class="entry-meta">
462			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/" title="13:43" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-24T13:43:45+01:00" pubdate>24/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
463<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/#comments" class="comments-link" >379 Comments</a></h5>
464		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
465			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
466
467	<div class="entry-summary">
468		<p>The most striking thing is how badly Reform will do once tactical voting kicks in. TSE</p>
469	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
470
471	<footer class="entry-footer">
472			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
473</article><!-- #post-## -->
474											
475<article id="post-153466"  class="post-content post-153466 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
476
477	
478	
479	<header class="entry-header">
480
481		<span class="screen-reader-text">I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead</span>
482
483					<h2 class="entry-title">
484				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/" rel="bookmark">I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead</a>
485			</h2>
486		
487				<div class="entry-meta">
488			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/" title="22:15" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T22:15:23+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
489<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/#comments" class="comments-link" >414 Comments</a></h5>
490		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
491			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
492
493	<div class="entry-summary">
494		<p>This poll from More in Common is interesting, I would caveat it with other pollsters in the past week who have Reform 5%/6% ahead of the Conservatives, and YouGov have them tied. With Nigel Farage’s ratings cratering over the last few months the fall in Reform’s score was inevitable, with some pollsters now prompting for Restore has made this a double whammy for Reform. Andy Burnham’s honeymoon is ending and Burnham&#8217;s political rhetoric meets fiscal and economic reality in the&#8230;</p>
495<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
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497
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501											
502<article id="post-153461"  class="post-content post-153461 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
503
504	
505	
506	<header class="entry-header">
507
508		<span class="screen-reader-text">If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans</span>
509
510					<h2 class="entry-title">
511				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/" rel="bookmark">If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans</a>
512			</h2>
513		
514				<div class="entry-meta">
515			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/" title="15:40" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T15:40:26+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
516<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/#comments" class="comments-link" >222 Comments</a></h5>
517		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
518			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
519
520	<div class="entry-summary">
521		<p>I would not be surprised to see where petrol and diesel prices have increased the most the Republicans do the worst in the midterms. TSE</p>
522	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
523
524	<footer class="entry-footer">
525			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
526</article><!-- #post-## -->
527											
528<article id="post-153450"  class="post-content post-153450 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
529
530	
531	
532	<header class="entry-header">
533
534		<span class="screen-reader-text">Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting</span>
535
536					<h2 class="entry-title">
537				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/" rel="bookmark">Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting</a>
538			</h2>
539		
540				<div class="entry-meta">
541			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/" title="07:54" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T07:54:47+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
542<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/#comments" class="comments-link" >355 Comments</a></h5>
543		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
544			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
545
546	<div class="entry-summary">
547		<p>This polling cracks me up, it might be the epitome of correlation doesn’t equal causation or it might be significant however it does merit further investigation. It should be remembered that some people are weirdly snobbish about supermarkets, I love Sainsbury&#8217;s as they keep the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose, so there is the potential for existing perceptions being reinforced. Thanks to Robert&#8217;s hard work he&#8217;s managed to produce a lot of information looking at the shops mentioned in&#8230;</p>
548<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
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