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TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday.</p> 363 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 364 365 <footer class="entry-footer"> 366 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 367</article><!-- #post-## --> 368 369<article id="post-153488" class="post-content post-153488 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 370 371 372 373 <header class="entry-header"> 374 375 <span class="screen-reader-text">Welcome to the Dummymander</span> 376 377 <h2 class="entry-title">
378 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/26/welcome-to-the-dummymander/" rel="bookmark">Welcome to the Dummymander</a> 379 </h2> 380 381 <div class="entry-meta"> 382 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/26/welcome-to-the-dummymander/" title="06:42" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-26T06:42:05+01:00" pubdate>26/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 383<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/robert/" title="View all posts by robert" rel="author">robert</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/26/welcome-to-the-dummymander/#comments" class="comments-link" >520 Comments</a></h5> 384 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 385 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 386 387 <div class="entry-summary"> 388 <p>A dummymander is just like a gerrymander⦠only instead of it gaining you Congressional Districts, it actually loses them. First, a quick primer. The perfect gerrymander involves having one Congressional District that is -say- 90% your opponent, and 10% you. While the remaining Congressional Districts are all around you +20 percentage points. This ensures that (a) you will win a completely disproportionate number of Congressional Districts, and (b) that your seats will be relatively safe. Whatever happens at a national…</p> 389<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/26/welcome-to-the-dummymander/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text"> Read More</span></a></p> 390 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 391 392 <footer class="entry-footer"> 393 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 394</article><!-- #post-## --> 395 396<article id="post-153470" class="post-content post-153470 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 397 398 399 400 <header class="entry-header"> 401 402 <span class="screen-reader-text">Reform voters are the most likely to believe they have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister</span> 403 404 <h2 class="entry-title"> 405 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/reform-voters-are-the-most-likely-to-believe-they-have-what-it-takes-to-be-prime-minister/" rel="bookmark">Reform voters are the most likely to believe they have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister</a> 406 </h2> 407 408 <div class="entry-meta"> 409 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/reform-voters-are-the-most-likely-to-believe-they-have-what-it-takes-to-be-prime-minister/" title="16:02" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-25T16:02:08+01:00" pubdate>25/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 410<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/reform-voters-are-the-most-likely-to-believe-they-have-what-it-takes-to-be-prime-minister/#comments" class="comments-link" >257 Comments</a></h5> 411 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 412 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 413 414 <div class="entry-summary"> 415 <p>You have to admire the self confidence of Reform voters, I am the last person in the universe to criticise others for possessing some self confidence. This polling fits in with other polling which says Reform voters believe they are in touch with most voters compared to other parties. I am in the 19% who say they would make a very bad Prime Minister. I would be perpetually apologising for my colourful metaphors and sense of humour. I’d also be…</p> 416<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/reform-voters-are-the-most-likely-to-believe-they-have-what-it-takes-to-be-prime-minister/">
416 Read More<span class="screen-reader-text"> Read More</span></a></p> 417 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 418 419 <footer class="entry-footer"> 420 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 421</article><!-- #post-## --> 422 423<article id="post-153480" class="post-content post-153480 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 424 425 426 427 <header class="entry-header"> 428 429 <span class="screen-reader-text">Is Nigel Farage putting his money where his mouth is?</span> 430 431 <h2 class="entry-title"> 432 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/is-nigel-farage-putting-his-money-where-his-mouth-is/" rel="bookmark">Is Nigel Farage putting his money where his mouth is?</a> 433 </h2> 434 435 <div class="entry-meta"> 436 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/is-nigel-farage-putting-his-money-where-his-mouth-is/" title="08:06" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-25T08:06:25+01:00" pubdate>25/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 437<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/25/is-nigel-farage-putting-his-money-where-his-mouth-is/#comments" class="comments-link" >417 Comments</a></h5> 438 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 439 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 440 441 <div class="entry-summary"> 442 <p>If Nigel Farage is right then the 15.5 on a 2026 general election represents stonking value although I did a 2026 general election at 20s just eleven days ago. I suspect Nigel Farage is saying this to portray Andy Burnham as frit when there is no early election, as I noted yesterday the MRPs should end any talk of an early election. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday.</p> 443 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 444 445 <footer class="entry-footer"> 446 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 447</article><!-- #post-## --> 448 449<article id="post-153476" class="post-content post-153476 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 450 451 452 453 <header class="entry-header"> 454 455 <span class="screen-reader-text">These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election</span> 456 457 <h2 class="entry-title"> 458 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/" rel="bookmark">These MRPs should kibosh any chance of an early general election</a> 459 </h2> 460 461 <div class="entry-meta"> 462 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/" title="13:43" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-24T13:43:45+01:00" pubdate>24/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 463<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/24/these-mrps-should-kibosh-any-chance-of-an-early-general-election/#comments" class="comments-link" >379 Comments</a></h5> 464 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 465 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 466 467 <div class="entry-summary"> 468 <p>The most striking thing is how badly Reform will do once tactical voting kicks in. TSE</p> 469 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 470 471 <footer class="entry-footer"> 472 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 473</article><!-- #post-## --> 474 475<article id="post-153466" class="post-content post-153466 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 476 477 478 479 <header class="entry-header"> 480 481 <span class="screen-reader-text">I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead</span> 482 483 <h2 class="entry-title">
484 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/" rel="bookmark">I think we may soon see some polls with the Conservatives in the lead</a> 485 </h2> 486 487 <div class="entry-meta"> 488 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/" title="22:15" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T22:15:23+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 489<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/#comments" class="comments-link" >414 Comments</a></h5> 490 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 491 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 492 493 <div class="entry-summary"> 494 <p>This poll from More in Common is interesting, I would caveat it with other pollsters in the past week who have Reform 5%/6% ahead of the Conservatives, and YouGov have them tied. With Nigel Farageâs ratings cratering over the last few months the fall in Reformâs score was inevitable, with some pollsters now prompting for Restore has made this a double whammy for Reform. Andy Burnhamâs honeymoon is ending and Burnham’s political rhetoric meets fiscal and economic reality in the…</p> 495<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/i-think-we-may-soon-see-polls-with-the-conservatives-in-the-lead/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text"> Read More</span></a></p> 496 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 497 498 <footer class="entry-footer"> 499 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 500</article><!-- #post-## --> 501 502<article id="post-153461" class="post-content post-153461 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 503 504 505 506 <header class="entry-header"> 507 508 <span class="screen-reader-text">If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans</span> 509 510 <h2 class="entry-title"> 511 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/" rel="bookmark">If fuel prices determine how people vote then it will be a bad November for the Republicans</a> 512 </h2> 513 514 <div class="entry-meta"> 515 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/" title="15:40" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T15:40:26+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 516<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/if-fuel-prices-determine-how-people-vots-then-it-will-be-a-bad-november-for-the-republicans/#comments" class="comments-link" >222 Comments</a></h5> 517 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 518 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 519 520 <div class="entry-summary"> 521 <p>I would not be surprised to see where petrol and diesel prices have increased the most the Republicans do the worst in the midterms. TSE</p> 522 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 523 524 <footer class="entry-footer"> 525 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 526</article><!-- #post-## --> 527 528<article id="post-153450" class="post-content post-153450 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting"> 529 530 531 532 <header class="entry-header"> 533 534 <span class="screen-reader-text">Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting</span> 535 536 <h2 class="entry-title">
537 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/" rel="bookmark">Winning here. Lib Dems and constituency betting</a> 538 </h2> 539 540 <div class="entry-meta"> 541 <h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/" title="07:54" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-23T07:54:47+01:00" pubdate>23/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i> 542<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/#comments" class="comments-link" >355 Comments</a></h5> 543 </div><!-- .entry-meta --> 544 </header><!-- .entry-header --> 545 546 <div class="entry-summary"> 547 <p>This polling cracks me up, it might be the epitome of correlation doesnât equal causation or it might be significant however it does merit further investigation. It should be remembered that some people are weirdly snobbish about supermarkets, I love Sainsbury’s as they keep the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose, so there is the potential for existing perceptions being reinforced. Thanks to Robert’s hard work he’s managed to produce a lot of information looking at the shops mentioned in…</p> 548<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/23/winning-here-lib-dems-and-constituency-betting/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text"> Read More</span></a></p> 549 </div><!-- .entry-summary --> 550 551 <footer class="entry-footer"> 552 </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> 553</article><!-- #post-## --> 554 <nav class="navigation posts-navigation" role="navigation"> 555 <h2 class="screen-reader-text">Posts navigation</h2> 556 <div class="nav-links"> 557 558 <div class="row"> 559 560 561 <div class="col-md-6 prev-post"> 562 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/page/3/" ><i class="fa fa-angle-double-left"></i>OLDER POSTS</a> </div> 563 564 <div class="col-md-6 next-post"> 565 <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/" >NEWER POSTS<i class="fa fa-angle-double-right"></i></a> </div> 566 </div><!-- row --> 567 </div><!-- .nav-links --> 568 </nav><!-- .navigation --> 569 </main><!-- #main --> 570 </div><!-- #primary --> 571 <div id="secondary" class="col-md-3 sidebar widget-area" role="complementary"> 572 <aside id="custom_html-1" class="widget_text widget widget_custom_html"><div class="textwidget custom-html-widget"><div style="background:#f7f9fa;border-left:4px solid #009688;padding:14px 16px 16px"> 573<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Every Westminster voting-intention poll back to 2005, and the 2026 US midterms: the generic congressional ballot and the Senate and governor races. Updated as polls are published, with charts and running averages.</p> 574<a href="https://polls.politicalbetting.com/us/latest-polls" style="display:inline-block;background:#009688;color:#fff;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:3px;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;text-decoration:none;margin:0 6px 6px 0">Latest US polls →</a> 575<a href="https://polls.politicalbetting.com/uk" style="display:inline-block;background:#009688;color:#fff;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:3px;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;text-decoration:none;margin:0 6px 6px 0">UK polls →</a> 576<a href="https://polls.politicalbetting.com/us" style="display:inline-block;background:#009688;color:#fff;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:3px;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;text-decoration:none;margin:0 6px 6px 0">US midterms →</a> 577</div></div></aside><aside id="custom_html-2" class="widget_text widget widget_custom_html"><h4 class="widget-title">UK & US Election Results</h4><div class="textwidget custom-html-widget"><div style="background:#f7f9fa;border-left:4px solid #009688;padding:14px 16px 16px"> 578<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Every UK council by-election as it is declared, scored against the last time the seat was fought — plus the full local record, forthcoming contests and Westminster back to 1832. And the US: every House, Senate and presidential race since 1976, and the new congressional maps for November.</p> 579<a href="https://elections.politicalbetting.com/" style="display:inline-block;background:#009688;color:#fff;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:3px;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;text-decoration:none;margin:0 6px 6px 0">UK results →</a> 580<a href="https://elections.politicalbetting.com/us" style="display:inline-block;background:#009688;color:#fff;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:3px;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;text-decoration:none;margin:0 6px 6px 0">US results →</a> 581</div></div></aside><aside id="custom_html-3" class="widget_text widget widget_custom_html"><h4 class="widget-title">PB League Tables</h4><div class="textwidget custom-html-widget"><div style="background:#f7f9fa;border-left:4px solid #009688;padding:14px 16px 16px"> 582<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Who comments most, who gets the most likes, who is quoted by the most PBers — eight top-10 tables and the most-liked comments of all time, this year and the last 30 days. Updated nightly.</p> 583<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/league-tables/" style="display:inline-block;background:#009688;color:#fff;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:3px;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;text-decoration:none;margin:0 6px 6px 0">League tables →</a> 584</div></div></aside><aside id="linkcat-206" class="widget widget_links"><h4 class="widget-title">Elections & forecasting</h4> 585 <ul class='xoxo blogroll'> 586<li><a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/">Commons Library</a></li> 587<li><a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/">Cook Political Report</a></li> 588<li><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/">Electoral Calculus</a></li> 589<li><a href="https://www.metaculus.com/">Metaculus</a></li> 590<li><a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a></li> 591<li><a href="https://split-ticket.org/">Split Ticket</a></li> 592<li><a href="https://www.gelliottmorris.com/">Strength In Numbers</a></li> 593<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections">UK by-elections</a></li> 594 595 </ul> 596</aside> 597<aside id="linkcat-207" class="widget widget_links"><h4 class="widget-title">Polling & data</h4> 598 <ul class='xoxo blogroll'> 599<li><a href="https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/">British Polling Council</a></li> 600<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">Next GE polling</a></li> 601<li><a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/">Politico Poll of Polls</a></li> 602<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">UK leader ratings</a></li> 603<li><a href="https://pollingreport.uk/">UK Polling Report</a></li> 604<li><a href="https://yougov.co.uk/trackers">YouGov trackers</a></li> 605 606 </ul> 607</aside> 608<aside id="linkcat-208" class="widget widget_links"><h4 class="widget-title">UK political blogs</h4> 609 <ul class='xoxo blogroll'> 610<li><a href="https://britainelects.substack.com/">Britain Elects</a></li> 611<li><a href="https://conservativehome.com/">ConservativeHome</a></li> 612<li><a href="https://order-order.com/">Guido Fawkes</a></li> 613<li><a href="https://labourlist.org/">LabourList</a></li> 614<li><a href="https://leftfootforward.org/">Left Foot Forward</a></li> 615<li><a href="https://www.libdemvoice.org/">LibDem Voice</a></li> 616<li><a href="https://www.politics.co.uk/">Politics.co.uk</a></li> 617<li><a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/coffee-house/">Spectator Coffee House</a></li> 618 619 </ul> 620</aside> 621</div><!-- #secondary .widget-area --> 622 623 624 </div><!--row--> 625 </div><!--.container--> 626 </div><!-- #content --> 627 <footer id="colophon" class="site-footer" role="contentinfo"> 628 <div class="site-info"> 629 © 2026 <span class="sep"> | </span> 630 Proudly Powered By <a href=" https://wordpress.org/" >WordPress</a> 631 <span class="sep"> | </span> 632 Theme: <a href="https://wordpress.org/themes/nisarg/" rel="designer">Nisarg</a> </div><!-- .site-info --> 633 </footer><!-- #colophon --> 634</div><!-- #page -->
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