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14<title>politicalbetting.com &#8211; The web&#039;s premier resource for political betting.</title>
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324				<h1 class="site-title">politicalbetting.com</h1>
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337									
338																
339<article id="post-153533"  class="post-content post-153533 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
340
341	
342	
343	<header class="entry-header">
344
345		<span class="screen-reader-text">Things are going wrong</span>
346
347					<h2 class="entry-title">
348				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/10/01/things-are-going-wrong/" rel="bookmark">Things are going wrong</a>
349			</h2>
350		
351				<div class="entry-meta">
352			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/10/01/things-are-going-wrong/" title="15:57" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-10-01T15:57:38+01:00" pubdate>1/10/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
353<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/10/01/things-are-going-wrong/#comments" class="comments-link" >223 Comments</a></h5>
354		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
355			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
356
357	<div class="entry-summary">
358		<p>TSE Site notice &#8211; I am currently on holiday</p>
359	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
360
361	<footer class="entry-footer">
362			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
363</article><!-- #post-## -->
364											
365<article id="post-153541"  class="post-content post-153541 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
366
367	
368	
369	<header class="entry-header">
370
371		<span class="screen-reader-text">I agree with Ken Paxton</span>
372
373					<h2 class="entry-title">
374				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/10/01/i-agree-with-ken-paxton/" rel="bookmark">I agree with Ken Paxton</a>
375			</h2>
376		
377				<div class="entry-meta">
378			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/10/01/i-agree-with-ken-paxton/" title="07:19" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-10-01T07:19:29+01:00" pubdate>1/10/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
379<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/10/01/i-agree-with-ken-paxton/#comments" class="comments-link" >406 Comments</a></h5>
380		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
381			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
382
383	<div class="entry-summary">
384		<p>In 2024 one of the key indicators that Donald Trump was going to win the presidency was his lead on the economy/the cost of living crisis that as the incumbents the Democrats was so damaging. This poll now has Americans saying the Biden economy was better than the Trump economy is going to annoy Trump bigly, ot also makes me think those polls with the Dems with massive leads in the generic polling is right. As for Ken Paxton, nothing&#8230;</p>
385<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/10/01/i-agree-with-ken-paxton/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
386	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
387
388	<footer class="entry-footer">
389			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
390</article><!-- #post-## -->
391											
392<article id="post-153535"  class="post-content post-153535 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
393
394	
395	
396	<header class="entry-header">
397
398		<span class="screen-reader-text">We&#8217;re going to need a bigger swingometer in November</span>
399
400					<h2 class="entry-title">
401				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/30/were-going-to-need-a-bigger-swingometer-in-november/" rel="bookmark">We&#8217;re going to need a bigger swingometer in November</a>
402			</h2>
403		
404				<div class="entry-meta">
405			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/30/were-going-to-need-a-bigger-swingometer-in-november/" title="15:05" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-30T15:05:51+01:00" pubdate>30/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
406<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/30/were-going-to-need-a-bigger-swingometer-in-november/#comments" class="comments-link" >343 Comments</a></h5>
407		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
408			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
409
410	<div class="entry-summary">
411		<p>The figure that stands out for me is that amongst women the Dems lead by 23%. TSE Site notice &#8211; I am currently on holiday.</p>
412	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
413
414	<footer class="entry-footer">
415			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
416</article><!-- #post-## -->
417											
418<article id="post-153537"  class="post-content post-153537 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
419
420	
421	
422	<header class="entry-header">
423
424		<span class="screen-reader-text">The public want proportional representation</span>
425
426					<h2 class="entry-title">
427				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/30/the-public-want-proportional-representation/" rel="bookmark">The public want proportional representation</a>
428			</h2>
429		
430				<div class="entry-meta">
431			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/30/the-public-want-proportional-representation/" title="09:15" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-30T09:15:22+01:00" pubdate>30/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
432<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/30/the-public-want-proportional-representation/#comments" class="comments-link" >411 Comments</a></h5>
433		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
434			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
435
436	<div class="entry-summary">
437		<p>This long standing polling from YouGov shows Andy Burnham&#8217;
437s proposal yesterday will be received well by the public, the next general election could be the last conducted under the first past the post system and that has huge ramifications for political betting. TSE</p>
438	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
439
440	<footer class="entry-footer">
441			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
442</article><!-- #post-## -->
443											
444<article id="post-153527"  class="post-content post-153527 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
445
446	
447	
448	<header class="entry-header">
449
450		<span class="screen-reader-text">Some reactions to Andy Burnham&#8217;s speech</span>
451
452					<h2 class="entry-title">
453				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/29/some-reactions-to-andy-burnhams-speech/" rel="bookmark">Some reactions to Andy Burnham&#8217;s speech</a>
454			</h2>
455		
456				<div class="entry-meta">
457			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/29/some-reactions-to-andy-burnhams-speech/" title="16:20" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-29T16:20:55+01:00" pubdate>29/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
458<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/29/some-reactions-to-andy-burnhams-speech/#comments" class="comments-link" >497 Comments</a></h5>
459		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
460			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
461
462	<div class="entry-summary">
463		<p>I am currently on holiday and have not watched the speech by the Prime Minister so I am going on vibes and I have to praise Andy Burnham for taking action on the triple lock although it could lead to unpopularity for him as per Nigel Farage&#8217;s attack lines. For those who get positively tumescent at the prospect of electoral reform today&#8217;s news is welcome and should solidify Lib Dem tactical votes for Labour. TSE</p>
464	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
465
466	<footer class="entry-footer">
467			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
468</article><!-- #post-## -->
469											
470<article id="post-153520"  class="post-content post-153520 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
471
472	
473	
474	<header class="entry-header">
475
476		<span class="screen-reader-text">This is a very bold strategy from Ken Paxton</span>
477
478					<h2 class="entry-title">
479				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/29/this-is-a-very-bold-strategy-from-ken-paxton/" rel="bookmark">This is a very bold strategy from Ken Paxton</a>
480			</h2>
481		
482				<div class="entry-meta">
483			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/29/this-is-a-very-bold-strategy-from-ken-paxton/" title="08:15" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-29T08:15:34+01:00" pubdate>29/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
484<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/29/this-is-a-very-bold-strategy-from-ken-paxton/#comments" class="comments-link" >409 Comments</a></h5>
485		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
486			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
487
488	<div class="entry-summary">
489		<p>Every time I convince myself that the polls are wrong about James Talarico winning the Texas senate seat up pops Ken Paxton reminding us all why he is such an awful human being and why his own party tried to impeach him and why the polls are right. If you&#8217;re not aware of the story you can click on this link. As the community notes observes the reality is that Paxton asked for one day and the judge rejected that&#8230;.</p>
490<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/29/this-is-a-very-bold-strategy-from-ken-paxton/">
490 Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
491	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
492
493	<footer class="entry-footer">
494			</footer><!-- .entry-footer -->
495</article><!-- #post-## -->
496											
497<article id="post-153507"  class="post-content post-153507 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
498
499	
500	
501	<header class="entry-header">
502
503		<span class="screen-reader-text">Welcome to PB Predictions!</span>
504
505					<h2 class="entry-title">
506				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/28/welcome-to-pb-predictions/" rel="bookmark">Welcome to PB Predictions!</a>
507			</h2>
508		
509				<div class="entry-meta">
510			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/28/welcome-to-pb-predictions/" title="14:58" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-28T14:58:42+01:00" pubdate>28/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
511<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/robert/" title="View all posts by robert" rel="author">robert</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/28/welcome-to-pb-predictions/#comments" class="comments-link" >398 Comments</a></h5>
512		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
513			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
514
515	<div class="entry-summary">
516		<p>So&#8230; Nate Silver has his FLIPR. We have PB Predictions. And here&#8217;s where it&#8217;s different. In his case, there&#8217;s his model and his probabilties. In our case, you get to enter your own assumptions, and see what it throws out! Set swings by demographic group, decide how important money is, or incumbency, and how much weight to put on local (versus national) polling. It gets better. This is your prediction &#8211; with your views on candidate strength, how accurate polls&#8230;</p>
517<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/28/welcome-to-pb-predictions/"> Read More<span class="screen-reader-text">  Read More</span></a></p>
518	</div><!-- .entry-summary -->
519
520	<footer class="entry-footer">
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522</article><!-- #post-## -->
523											
524<article id="post-153504"  class="post-content post-153504 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-betting">
525
526	
527	
528	<header class="entry-header">
529
530		<span class="screen-reader-text">Fine, fine margins</span>
531
532					<h2 class="entry-title">
533				<a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/28/fine-fine-margins/" rel="bookmark">Fine, fine margins</a>
534			</h2>
535		
536				<div class="entry-meta">
537			<h5 class="entry-date"><i class="fa fa-calendar-o"></i> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/28/fine-fine-margins/" title="07:11" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2026-09-28T07:11:58+01:00" pubdate>28/9/2026 </time></a><span class="byline"><span class="sep"></span><i class="fa fa-user"></i>
538<span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/author/tse/" title="View all posts by TSE" rel="author">TSE</a></span></span> <i class="fa fa-comments-o"></i><span class="screen-reader-text">Comments </span> <a href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/28/fine-fine-margins/#comments" class="comments-link" >401 Comments</a></h5>
539		</div><!-- .entry-meta -->
540			</header><!-- .entry-header -->
541
542	<div class="entry-summary">
543		<p>The above are selected posts from a longer thread from a newly published MRP by More in Common, the ones I have selected is to show how finely balanced things are. I have mentioned previously that is eminently possible for a party to win a stonking majority on circa 25% of the vote this shows how that could play out, the next general election could be decided by the barest of all margins. TSE Site notice &#8211; I am currently&#8230;</p>
544<p class="read-more"><a class="btn btn-default" href="https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/09/28/fine-fine-margins/">
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567<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Every Westminster voting-intention poll back to 2005, and the 2026 US midterms: the generic congressional ballot and the Senate and governor races. Updated as polls are published, with charts and running averages.</p>
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572<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Every UK council by-election as it is declared, scored against the last time the seat was fought &mdash; plus the full local record, forthcoming contests and Westminster back to 1832. And the US: every House, Senate and presidential race since 1976, and the new congressional maps for November.</p>
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576<p style="font-size:13px;line-height:1.55;color:#555;margin:0 0 14px">Who comments most, who gets the most likes, who is quoted by the most PBers &mdash; eight top-10 tables and the most-liked comments of all time, this year and the last 30 days. Updated nightly.</p>
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580<li><a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/">Commons Library</a></li>
581<li><a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/">Cook Political Report</a></li>
582<li><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/">Electoral Calculus</a></li>
583<li><a href="https://www.metaculus.com/">Metaculus</a></li>
584<li><a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a></li>
585<li><a href="https://split-ticket.org/">Split Ticket</a></li>
586<li><a href="https://www.gelliottmorris.com/">Strength In Numbers</a></li>
587<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections">UK by-elections</a></li>
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594<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">Next GE polling</a></li>
595<li><a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/">Politico Poll of Polls</a></li>
596<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">UK leader ratings</a></li>
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