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https://newrepublic.com/article/215986/banning-diesel-exports-trump-prices

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1<!doctype html><html lang="en-us"><head><meta charSet="utf-8"/><title data-react-helmet="true">Banning Diesel Exports Won’t Solve Trump’s Biggest Problem | The New Republic</title>
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401https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1400&amp;dpr=2 2x,
402https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1400&amp;dpr=3 3x,
403https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1400&amp;dpr=4 4x,
404https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1400&amp;dpr=5 5x"/><source media="screen and (min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 991.98px)" width="1200" srcSet="https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1200&amp;dpr=1 1x,
405https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1200&amp;dpr=2 2x,
406https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1200&amp;dpr=3 3x,
407https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1200&amp;dpr=4 4x,
408https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1200&amp;dpr=5 5x"/><img alt="A sign displaying gas and diesel prices at a Shell gas station in Torrance, California shows the price of regular gasoline at $6.28 per gallon, plus gasoline at $6.49 per gallon, V-power gasoline at $6.59 per gallon, and diesel at $8.59 per gallon." class="LedeImg " width="1000" src="https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;q=65&amp;w=1000&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0" srcSet="https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1000&amp;dpr=1 1x,
409https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1000&amp;dpr=2 2x,
410https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1000&amp;dpr=3 3x,
411https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1000&amp;dpr=4 4x,
412https://images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=3%3A2&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=1000&amp;dpr=5 5x"/></picture></div><div class="article_ledeImageRealCaption">Fuel prices at a Shell gas station in Torrance, California, on September 28</div></div><div class="article_ledeImageCredit">Caroline Brehman/Bloomberg/Getty Images</div></div><div class="article_ledeImageRealCaption mobile-only">Fuel prices at a Shell gas station in Torrance, California, on September 28</div><div class="post-share"><div id="post_share_top" class="article-social"><label class="post-share-text" for="shareBtn-215986-post_share_top"><span>Share This Story</span><div class="icon"><svg class="icon-share-post" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 15 15">
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412class="ad-slot" aria-hidden="true"></div></div></div><div class="article-text-wrap"><div class="article-text-grid"><p>Although the price of diesel may seem esoteric to an individual whose only vehicles run on gasoline, it is intertwined with the larger U.S. economy. Diesel powers such heavy machinery as construction equipment, trucks, buses, ships, and tractors. If higher diesel prices drive up the cost of shipping goods, that extra expense will be reflected in the price tag of those items.</p><p>In theory, a person can decide to use less gasoline, resolve to drive less, or purchase an electric vehicle. But diesel use is something from which we don’t get to opt out.</p><p>“It’s almost impossible for you to extract diesel from your life as long as you buy groceries, or something on Amazon,” said Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context. “Your E.V. was likely delivered on a truck that was fueled by diesel.”</p></div></div><div class="full-width ad-container"><div class="ad-unit dynamic_incontent_1 "><div id="dynamic_incontent_1" name="newrepublic_dynamic_incontent" class="ad-slot" aria-hidden="true"></div></div></div><div class="article-text-wrap"><div class="article-text-grid"><p>Diesel prices topped $6.38 per gallon <a href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">this week</a>. This is a result of the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely constricted crude oil exports from the Middle East. But other factors have played a role, including the destruction of Russian refineries by Ukraine and a diesel export ban by both Russia and China. As diesel exports have plummeted from other sources, the United States has been the only country to lift its global supply.</p><p>The theory behind restricting or banning diesel exports is that more diesel would remain in the country, and therefore fuel costs would go down: If you ship out less, you keep in more. But the reality of that scenario would be more complicated. The U.S. already <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67868" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">produces</a> around 5.3 million barrels per day of distillate fuels, which include diesel, but the domestic demand is only around 3.6 million barrels. Refiners on the Gulf Coast rely on trade to absorb that surplus; if exports are banned, around 1.5 million barrels per day of diesel would be “stranded,” according to <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/092326-diesel-export-ban-would-send-shockwaves-through-us-refining-system" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">analysts</a> at S&amp;P Global.</p><p>These risks have left oil industry stakeholders in a tizzy. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers have <a href="https://afpm.org/newsroom/blog/why-diesel-export-ban-would-backfire" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">warned</a> that such a ban would “reduce U.S. fuel production, put upward pressure on prices, weaken energy security and hand market share to foreign competitors.” It’s a concern echoed by the folks at the American Petroleum Institute, who <a href="https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2026/09/22/a-diesel-export-ban-would-wreak-havoc-at-home-and-abroad-heres-why" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">fear</a> that a fuel surplus would lead to refineries producing less gasoline and jet fuel along with reducing diesel production. </p></div></div><div class="full-width ad-container"><div class="ad-unit dynamic_incontent_2 "><div id="dynamic_incontent_2" name="newrepublic_dynamic_incontent" class="ad-slot" aria-hidden="true"></div></div></div><div class="article-text-wrap"><div class="article-text-grid"><p>The U.S. produces diesel at a structural surplus, and there is room for refineries to stockpile diesel if it is unable to be exported. But eventually, refineries will no longer have a reason to continue processing as much crude oil.</p><p>“You are going to destroy the financial incentive to process these barrels in the first place, and these refiners will begin cutting runs,” said Johnston. S&amp;
412P Global analysts predict refiners would ultimately need to cut crude runs by 1.9 million barrels per day.</p><p>Commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that an export ban would initially lead to a decrease in prices—but only until diesel storage is full. Because different fuels are produced together, such an action would put “upward pressure on gasoline prices,” according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-expects-initial-diesel-price-decline-under-us-export-curbs-2026-09-28/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">a memo</a> by Goldman Sachs. The bank estimated that gasoline prices could increase by $0.30 per week.</p></div></div><div class="full-width ad-container"><div class="ad-unit dynamic_incontent_3 "><div id="dynamic_incontent_3" name="newrepublic_dynamic_incontent" class="ad-slot" aria-hidden="true"></div></div></div><div class="article-text-wrap"><div class="article-text-grid"><p>A diesel export ban would also have global repercussions. With less diesel coming from the Middle East, China, and Russia, other countries across the world have been more reliant on American oil. According to API, the U.S. currently supplies around 20 percent of the roughly eight million barrels of diesel traded globally per day. Diesel prices continue to spike largely because the U.S. is the primary source for buyers. This past summer, diesel exports <a href="https://gaspriceguy.substack.com/p/oil-is-95-so-why-is-diesel-650" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">hit a record</a> of 1.9 million barrels per day. In short: Cutting access to U.S. diesel would be immediately felt across the world.</p><p>“If taken to the extreme, you have a situation where the United States, the preeminent global refining hub on the planet, is cutting back refining runs at a time when refining capacity has never been tighter globally,” said Johnston.</p><p>Other countries are bracing for this possibility. Dan Jorgensen, the European Union’s energy commissioner, recently sent a note to member nations urging them to cut gas and electricity consumption.</p></div></div><div class="full-width ad-container"><div class="ad-unit dynamic_incontent_4 "><div id="dynamic_incontent_4" name="newrepublic_dynamic_incontent" class="ad-slot" aria-hidden="true"></div></div></div><div class="article-text-wrap"><div class="article-text-grid"><p>“It is not in the interests of anybody, not the U.S., not us, to not have as free a flow of energy as possible in these difficult times,” Johnston <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/29/european-fears-energy-crunch-over-trumps-proposed-ban-diesel-exports/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">told reporters</a> at a meeting of European ministers.</p><p>The president may choose to restrict diesel exports rather than fully banning them. Trump administration officials certainly seem wary of extreme measures. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been adamant that a full ban on diesel is not in consideration, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/climate/chris-wright-trump-energy-secretary-fracking.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">saying</a> last week that “nobody wants a full blanket ban or zero exports of diesel.” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-oil-export-ban-unlikely-lower-energy-prices-interior-secretary-says-2026-09-14/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">said</a> earlier in September that such a ban would not lower prices in the long run.</p><p>That said, there is considerable political calculation behind support for an export ban. Republicans are in danger of losing control of both chambers of Congress in the November midterm elections, and increased costs do not make for a winning message. Moreover, higher diesel prices could discourage farm producers—generally a reliable GOP voting bloc—from supporting Republican candidates, or casting a ballot at all. Some Iowa lawmakers have been particularly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/28/us/republicans-trump-us-diesel-fuel-export-ban.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">vocal in their support</a> for an export ban, including Representatives Zach Nunn and Marianette Miller-Meeks, both of whom are locked in tight reelection battles.</p></div></div><div class="full-width ad-container"><div class="ad-unit dynamic_incontent_5 "><div id="dynamic_incontent_5" name="newrepublic_dynamic_incontent" 
412class="ad-slot" aria-hidden="true"></div></div></div><div class="article-text-wrap"><div class="article-text-grid"><p>But if the Trump administration wants to ban or restrict diesel exports with the goal of easing prices, there isn’t much time left to act. The election is just over one month away, and lower diesel prices would not be immediately reflected at the grocery store, for example.</p><p>“They’re running out of time for it to matter to voters,” said Johnston. “It takes time for it to hit the wholesale market, then from there it takes time to hit the retail market.”</p></div></div></div></div><div class="article-footer"><div class="article-footer-wrap"><div class="footer-wrap footer-text-wrap social"><div class="post-share post-footer"><div id="social_share_inline_bottom" class="article-social article-social-mobile"><label class="post-share-text" for="shareBtn-215986-social_share_inline_bottom"><span>Share This Story</span><div class="icon"><svg class="icon-share-post" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 15 15">
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448<a class="Hed" title="It’s Not Just Trump Who’s Dumb About Economics—It’s the GOP Generally" href="/article/215362/trump-gop-economic-ruin-recession" target="_self" data-discover="true"><div class="Hed">It’s Not Just Trump Who’s Dumb About Economics—It’s the GOP Generally</div></a><div class="AuthorBorder"><span class="AuthorList"><span><span class="AuthorList_author"><span class="AuthorList_bylineStyle"></span><a class="Author_anchor" href="/authors/michael-tomasky" title="Michael Tomasky">Michael Tomasky</a></span><span class="AuthorList_comma"></span></span></span></div></div><div class="StoryMedium TextImage"><div class="StoryMedium_img"><a class="ContainerImg" title="It’s Not Just Trump Who’s Dumb About Economics—It’s the GOP Generally" href="/article/215362/trump-gop-economic-ruin-recession" target="_self" data-discover="true"><div class="LedeImgContainer"><picture><source media="screen and (min-width: 992px)" srcSet="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20width%3D%22240%22%20height%3D%22180%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%22100%25%22%20height%3D%22100%25%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5F5F5%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E" width="240" data-srcset="https://images.newrepublic.com/26638f0c96364d2e9b76c5dd797125d2cb7a2664.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=4%3A3&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=240&amp;dpr=1 1x,
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507https://images.newrepublic.com/b5a3ea9e946487ea295fa0b21f6b3a6009248861.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=16%3A9&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=320&amp;dpr=4 4x,
508https://images.newrepublic.com/b5a3ea9e946487ea295fa0b21f6b3a6009248861.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=16%3A9&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=320&amp;dpr=5 5x"/></picture></div></a></div><div class="StoryMedium_text"><div class="Byline"><span class="AuthorList"><span><span class="AuthorList_author"><span class="AuthorList_bylineStyle"></span><a class="Author_anchor" href="/authors/malcolm-ferguson" title="Malcolm Ferguson">Malcolm Ferguson</a></span><span class="AuthorList_comma"></span></span></span></div><a class="Hed" title="“No Beardos, No Weirdos”: Hegseth Goes on Bizarre Rant to Silent Crowd" href="/post/216053/pete-hegseth-goes-bizarre-rant-silent-crowd" target="_self" data-discover="true"><div class="Hed">“No Beardos, No Weirdos”: Hegseth Goes on Bizarre Rant to Silent Crowd</div></a></div></div></div></div><div class="Box3Pic3_fourthCol"><div class="StorySmall_container"><div class="StorySmall TextImage"><a class="ContainerImg" title="Pete Hegseth Has a Bonkers Party Favor for Soldiers at His Speech" href="/post/216051/pete-hegseth-gift-soldiers-book-his-speeches" target="_self" data-discover="true"><div class="LedeImgContainer"><picture><source media="screen and (min-width: 992px)" srcSet="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20width%3D%22384%22%20height%3D%22288%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%22100%25%22%20height%3D%22100%25%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5F5F5%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E" width="384" data-srcset="https://images.newrepublic.com/87e34d9e6b057ea6e01c4d281476184f5dc8274a.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=4%3A3&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=384&amp;dpr=1 1x,
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517https://images.newrepublic.com/87e34d9e6b057ea6e01c4d281476184f5dc8274a.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=16%3A9&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=384&amp;dpr=2 2x,
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519https://images.newrepublic.com/87e34d9e6b057ea6e01c4d281476184f5dc8274a.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=16%3A9&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=384&amp;dpr=4 4x,
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528s speech" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20width%3D%22320%22%20height%3D%22180%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%22100%25%22%20height%3D%22100%25%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5F5F5%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E" class="LedeImg lazyload" width="320" data-src="https://images.newrepublic.com/87e34d9e6b057ea6e01c4d281476184f5dc8274a.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;q=65&amp;w=320&amp;ar=16%3A9&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0" data-srcset="https://images.newrepublic.com/87e34d9e6b057ea6e01c4d281476184f5dc8274a.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=16%3A9&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=320&amp;dpr=1 1x,
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530https://images.newrepublic.com/87e34d9e6b057ea6e01c4d281476184f5dc8274a.jpeg?auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;crop=faces&amp;ar=16%3A9&amp;ixlib=react-9.11.0&amp;q=65&amp;w=320&amp;dpr=3 3x,
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532,{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"economy"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"economics"}]},{"__typename":"Article","nid":"215092","tags":[{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"politics"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"the-tnr-blue-book"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"elaine-luria"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"virginia"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"democrats"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"election-2026"}]},{"__typename":"Article","nid":"215060","tags":[{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"politics"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"transgender-rights"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"political-violence"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"stephen-miller"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"hhs"}]},{"__typename":"Article","nid":"215064","tags":[{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"politics"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"law"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"supreme-court"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"donald-trump"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"ballroom"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"white-house-ballroom"}]},{"__typename":"Article","nid":"215061","tags":[{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"politics"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"supreme-court"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"supreme-court-watch"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"ballroom"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"white-house-ballroom"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"donald-trump"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"john-roberts"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"antonin-scalia"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"standing"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"law"},{"__typename":"Tag","slug":"-homepage-top"}]}]},"tag":{"__ref":"Tag:3046ee55-25d3-43cb-8491-58b17f8004d3"}},"Author:26476281-a791-4f7b-aa66-369d8f8074e9":{"__typename":"Author","id":"26476281-a791-4f7b-aa66-369d8f8074e9","name":"Grace Segers","slug":"grace-segers","blurb":"\u003cp> Grace Segers is a staff writer at \u003ci>The New Republic.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>","meta":{"__typename":"AuthorMeta","type":null,"twitter":"Grace_Segers","bluesky":"gracesegers.bsky.social","podcast":null,"signalHandle":"gracesegers.58","signalLink":"https://signal.me/#eu/PxN4pwsukVQOKa1Vut1iInIDxw2MXr2qLmPaULK-VzarNMllS6NDzK3p_ScLf3I0"}},"Image:605f8ca9-4533-4373-abaf-23b8a085c26e":{"__typename":"Image","id":"605f8ca9-4533-4373-abaf-23b8a085c26e","src":"//images.newrepublic.com/7958a5715932774cc95a216e7717ae7b59152a16.jpeg","format":"JPEG","width":4000,"height":2667,"alt":"A sign displaying gas and diesel prices at a Shell gas station in Torrance, California shows the price of regular gasoline at $6.28 per gallon, plus gasoline at $6.49 per gallon, V-power gasoline at $6.59 per gallon, and diesel at $8.59 per gallon."},"Tag:3046ee55-25d3-43cb-8491-58b17f8004d3":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"3046ee55-25d3-43cb-8491-58b17f8004d3","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},"Tag:9ecbca02-2681-4228-b2cb-f9f19cda9fc9":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"9ecbca02-2681-4228-b2cb-f9f19cda9fc9","slug":"donald-trump","label":"Donald Trump"},"Tag:20612f9e-9f51-430f-8121-4e277447c28a":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"20612f9e-9f51-430f-8121-4e277447c28a","slug":"exports","label":"Exports"},"Tag:20dc011f-eb6b-4020-8fef-45c587ee3deb":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"20dc011f-eb6b-4020-8fef-45c587ee3deb","slug":"gas-prices","label":"Gas Prices"},"Tag:8a0e574f-3f4f-48b6-bb43-1856a2c856ed":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"8a0e574f-3f4f-48b6-bb43-1856a2c856ed","slug":"diesel","label":"diesel"},"Tag:005225ea-a2d6-4ec9-9095-7be1f6ceb916":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"005225ea-a2d6-4ec9-9095-7be1f6ceb916","slug":"diesel-prices","label":"Diesel prices"},"Tag:615a6084-8730-4638-995c-69efcf2706dd":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"615a6084-8730-4638-995c-69efcf2706dd","slug":"diesel-exports","label":"Diesel exports"},"Tag:7178632b-6a21-45a8-80bf-80ca152aeaaa":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"7178632b-6a21-45a8-80bf-80ca152aeaaa","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"},"Tag:3b275cb9-be2c-4359-ad3a-c568b15cce5e":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"3b275cb9-be2c-4359-ad3a-c568b15cce5e","slug":"export-ban","label":"Export ban"},"Tag:168a7aec-155d-4f0d-9a99-162808fd598c":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"168a7aec-155d-4f0d-9a99-162808fd598c","slug":"diesel-export-ban","label":"Diesel export ban"},"Tag:b7266943-b310-49cc-829f-b4917d7b3b5a":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"b7266943-b310-49cc-829f-b4917d7b3b5a","slug":"ec
532onomy","label":"Economy"},"Tag:f7d31fbb-76f3-49a1-97b4-cec456b2f3ac":{"__typename":"Tag","id":"f7d31fbb-76f3-49a1-97b4-cec456b2f3ac","slug":"election-2026","label":"Election 2026"},"Article:688c4295-8022-4859-9126-5e272bac2dbf":{"__typename":"Article","id":"688c4295-8022-4859-9126-5e272bac2dbf","nid":"215986","slug":"banning-diesel-exports-trump-prices","title":"Banning Diesel Exports Won’t Solve Trump’s Biggest Problem","cleanTitle":"Banning Diesel Exports Won’t Solve Trump’s Biggest Problem","badge":"Diesel doubts","frontPage":{"__ref":"FrontPage:03bf2e55-4f96-4942-851b-0ac31c0aa4e4"},"LinkedSeriesId":null,"series":null,"authors":[{"__ref":"Author:26476281-a791-4f7b-aa66-369d8f8074e9"}],"body":"\u003cp>For the past few weeks, President Donald Trump has been noodling on a diesel export ban as a strategy for lowering fuel costs. As of this weekend, \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/28/diesel-oil-trump-export-ban-fuel-prices.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">he is still\u003c/a> “thinking about it very seriously,” despite strident opposition from the U.S. energy industry.\u003c/p>\u003cp>“That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we’re looking at it very seriously. We may do it,” Trump told reporters on Sunday. But implementing such a ban could backfire, with such consequences ranging from lower production by U.S. refineries and higher gasoline prices to a disruption of the global economy.\u003c/p>\u003cp>Although the price of diesel may seem esoteric to an individual whose only vehicles run on gasoline, it is intertwined with the larger U.S. economy. Diesel powers such heavy machinery as construction equipment, trucks, buses, ships, and tractors. If higher diesel prices drive up the cost of shipping goods, that extra expense will be reflected in the price tag of those items.\u003c/p>\u003cp>In theory, a person can decide to use less gasoline, resolve to drive less, or purchase an electric vehicle. But diesel use is something from which we don’t get to opt out.\u003c/p>\u003cp>“It’s almost impossible for you to extract diesel from your life as long as you buy groceries, or something on Amazon,” said Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context. “Your E.V. was likely delivered on a truck that was fueled by diesel.”\u003c/p>\u003cp>Diesel prices topped $6.38 per gallon \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">this week\u003c/a>. This is a result of the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely constricted crude oil exports from the Middle East. But other factors have played a role, including the destruction of Russian refineries by Ukraine and a diesel export ban by both Russia and China. As diesel exports have plummeted from other sources, the United States has been the only country to lift its global supply.\u003c/p>\u003cp>The theory behind restricting or banning diesel exports is that more diesel would remain in the country, and therefore fuel costs would go down: If you ship out less, you keep in more. But the reality of that scenario would be more complicated. The U.S. already \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67868\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">produces\u003c/a> around 5.3 million barrels per day of distillate fuels, which include diesel, but the domestic demand is only around 3.6 million barrels. Refiners on the Gulf Coast rely on trade to absorb that surplus; if exports are banned, around 1.5 million barrels per day of diesel would be “stranded,” according to \u003ca href=\"https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/092326-diesel-export-ban-would-send-shockwaves-through-us-refining-system\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">analysts\u003c/a> at S&amp;P Global.\u003c/p>\u003cp>These risks have left oil industry stakeholders in a tizzy. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers have \u003ca href=\"https://afpm.org/newsroom/blog/why-diesel-export-ban-would-backfire\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">warned\u003c/a> that such a ban would “reduce U.S. fuel production, put upward pressure on prices, weaken energy security and hand market share to foreign competitors.” It’s a concern echoed by the folks at the American Petroleum Institute, who \u003ca href=\"https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2026/09/22/a-diesel-export-ban-would-wreak-havoc-at-home-and-abroad-heres-why\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">fear\u003c/a> that a fuel surplus would lead to refineries producing less gasoline and jet fuel along with reducing diesel production. \u003c/p>\u003cp>The U.S. produces diesel at a structural surplus, and there is room for refineries to stockpile diesel if it is unable to be exported. But eventually, refineries will no longer have a reason to continue processing as much crude oil.\u003c/p>\u003cp>
532“You are going to destroy the financial incentive to process these barrels in the first place, and these refiners will begin cutting runs,” said Johnston. S&amp;P Global analysts predict refiners would ultimately need to cut crude runs by 1.9 million barrels per day.\u003c/p>\u003cp>Commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that an export ban would initially lead to a decrease in prices—but only until diesel storage is full. Because different fuels are produced together, such an action would put “upward pressure on gasoline prices,” according to \u003ca href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-expects-initial-diesel-price-decline-under-us-export-curbs-2026-09-28/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">a memo\u003c/a> by Goldman Sachs. The bank estimated that gasoline prices could increase by $0.30 per week.\u003c/p>\u003cp>A diesel export ban would also have global repercussions. With less diesel coming from the Middle East, China, and Russia, other countries across the world have been more reliant on American oil. According to API, the U.S. currently supplies around 20 percent of the roughly eight million barrels of diesel traded globally per day. Diesel prices continue to spike largely because the U.S. is the primary source for buyers. This past summer, diesel exports \u003ca href=\"https://gaspriceguy.substack.com/p/oil-is-95-so-why-is-diesel-650\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">hit a record\u003c/a> of 1.9 million barrels per day. In short: Cutting access to U.S. diesel would be immediately felt across the world.\u003c/p>\u003cp>“If taken to the extreme, you have a situation where the United States, the preeminent global refining hub on the planet, is cutting back refining runs at a time when refining capacity has never been tighter globally,” said Johnston.\u003c/p>\u003cp>Other countries are bracing for this possibility. Dan Jorgensen, the European Union’s energy commissioner, recently sent a note to member nations urging them to cut gas and electricity consumption.\u003c/p>\u003cp>“It is not in the interests of anybody, not the U.S., not us, to not have as free a flow of energy as possible in these difficult times,” Johnston \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/29/european-fears-energy-crunch-over-trumps-proposed-ban-diesel-exports/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">told reporters\u003c/a> at a meeting of European ministers.\u003c/p>\u003cp>The president may choose to restrict diesel exports rather than fully banning them. Trump administration officials certainly seem wary of extreme measures. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been adamant that a full ban on diesel is not in consideration, \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/climate/chris-wright-trump-energy-secretary-fracking.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">saying\u003c/a> last week that “nobody wants a full blanket ban or zero exports of diesel.” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum \u003ca href=\"https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-oil-export-ban-unlikely-lower-energy-prices-interior-secretary-says-2026-09-14/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">said\u003c/a> earlier in September that such a ban would not lower prices in the long run.\u003c/p>\u003cp>That said, there is considerable political calculation behind support for an export ban. Republicans are in danger of losing control of both chambers of Congress in the November midterm elections, and increased costs do not make for a winning message. Moreover, higher diesel prices could discourage farm producers—generally a reliable GOP voting bloc—from supporting Republican candidates, or casting a ballot at all. Some Iowa lawmakers have been particularly \u003ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/28/us/republicans-trump-us-diesel-fuel-export-ban.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">vocal in their support\u003c/a> for an export ban, including Representatives Zach Nunn and Marianette Miller-Meeks, both of whom are locked in tight reelection battles.\u003c/p>\u003cp>But if the Trump administration wants to ban or restrict diesel exports with the goal of easing prices, there isn’t much time left to act. The election is just over one month away, and lower diesel prices would not be immediately reflected at the grocery store, for example.\u003c/p>\u003cp>“They’re running out of time for it to matter to voters,” said Johnston. “It takes time for it to hit the wholesale market, then from there it takes time to hit the retail market.”\u003c/p>","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T10:00:00.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T12:00:02.229Z","displayAt":null,"publicPublishedDate":"2026-09-30T10:00:00.000Z","status":"PUBLISHED","ledeImage":{"__ref":"Image:605f8c
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