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778			Wednesday 30 September 2026 5:11 am		</time>
779					<span>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><span class="date-time__updated">&nbsp;Updated:&nbsp;</span>
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784
785	<h1 class="article-header__title">
786		What can steam trains teach us about progress in AI?	</h1>
787
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801					By: 				</span>
802									<a class="author-bio__link" href="https://www.cityam.com/profile/paul-ormerod/" rel="author">
803						Paul Ormerod					</a>
804							</p>
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896<!-- Ads Injected --><p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>Contrary to popular belief, Stephenson&rsquo;s Rocket did not hail the dawn of the steam age. Likewise, AI has actually been in development for decades, but progress could now begin to move faster than steam trains ever could, says Paul Ormerod</em></p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">The economics Nobel Laureate Robert Solow famously stated in 1987: &ldquo;you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics&rdquo;.&nbsp;</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">Although 40 years ago seems more or less the Dark Ages now in terms of technology, in the years leading up to Solow&rsquo;s remark there had been major developments in computing. In particular, the PC had spread widely, ending the dependency on large mainframe computers for analytical work and enabling products like Word and Wordstar to replace the office typing pool.</p><div class="notice-header  notice-header--is-full-content-width notice-header--is-bordered">
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900
901	</div><p class="wp-block-paragraph">A similar phenomenon seems to be taking place with AI. It is hardly possible to open a newspaper or open a media link without seeing some AI-related story. But we have not yet seen a surge in productivity from this technology.</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">One reason is simply that what we might term &ldquo;modern&rdquo; AI is very much in its infancy. There has been very little time for its effects to come through.</p><div class="newsletter-auto-inject" style="margin: 20px auto;">
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984									<h4><b>Free Thinking - City AM Opinion Newsletter</b></h4>
985<p>Get weekly sparky insight and expert commentary on markets, entrepreneurship and innovation from City&#8239;AM&rsquo;s Opinion Editor, delivered every Saturday.</p>
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1023		</div><p class="wp-block-paragraph">Back 200 years ago, the revolutionary technology of the railways emerged. These opening decades of the 19<sup>th</sup> century give us a useful insight into the evolution of AI in our own times.</p><div class="notice-header  notice-header--is-full-content-width notice-header--is-bordered">
1024					<div id="articlempu2">
1025							<div id="ezoic-pub-ad-placeholder-111"></div>
1026					</div>
1027
1028	</div><h2 id="h-the-dawn-of-the-steam-age" class="wp-block-heading">The dawn of the steam age</h2><p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 1829, a famous set of trials was conducted at <a href="https://www.railwaymuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/stephensons-rocket-rainhill-and-rise-locomotive" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Rainhill to compare the performance of the steam locomotives which had been developed</a>. Stephenson&rsquo;s Rocket eclipsed the field.&nbsp;</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">But there were not just contemporary rivals, there was already a history of steam locomotion.</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 1804, for example, a steam engine developed by Richard Trevithick had hauled coal on rails in the rapidly developing South Wales coalfields. Its maximum speed was 4mph.&nbsp;</p><div class="notice-header  notice-header--is-full-content-width notice-header--is-bordered">
1029					<div id="articlempu3">
1030							<div id="ezoic-pub-ad-placeholder-112"></div>
1031					</div>
1032
1033	</div><p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 1825, the Stockton and Darlington railway was opened with Locomotion no 1. It hauled both freight and, for the first time, passengers over the 26 mile route. Its top speed was 15mph, though in practice it averaged 8mph.</p><aside class="read-more read-more--has-media read-more-auto">
1034	<div class="read-more__content">
1035					<h5 class="read-more__label">Read more</h5>
1036				<h4 class="read-more__title">
1037			<a class="read-more__link" href="https://www.cityam.com/could-ai-wipe-out-middle-management/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Could AI wipe out middle management?</a>
1038		</h4>
1039	</div>
1040			<div class="read-more__media">
1041			<div class="read-more__media-ratio-container">
1042				<div class="read-more__media-item-container">
1043					<img width="203" height="114" src="https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?w=203&amp;h=114&amp;crop=1" class="media " alt="Office worker in the 1990s, surrounded by vintage computer monitors, calculators, and paper documents." fetchpriority="auto" loading="lazy" decoding="async" srcset="https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=256,144 256w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=400,225 400w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=900,506 900w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=640,360 640w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=824,463 824w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=720,405 720w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=587,330 587w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=286,161 286w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Office-worker-1990-Getty-Images-e1788868294208.jpg?resize=203,114 203w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 203px) 100vw, 203px">				</div>
1044			</div>
1045		</div>
1046	</aside><p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Rocket was far superior. It was in fact the first truly modern steam engine. Its then revolutionary engineering principles lasted as the basis for all engines until the very end of steam in the late 20<sup>th</sup> century.</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">Its very success led to it becoming obsolete, and by 1840 locomotives had become seven or eight times more powerful.</p><div class="notice-header  notice-header--is-full-content-width notice-header--is-bordered">
1047					<div id="articlempu4">
1048							<div id="ezoic-pub-ad-placeholder-113"></div>
1049					</div>
1050
1051	</div><p class="wp-block-paragraph">AI has a similar history. Neural networks underpin the modern large language models. The idea can be traced back to the 1940s, but neural nets did not really become operational until the publication of the technique of backpropagation in 1986 by David Rumelhart and Geoffrey Hinton.</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">It was an exciting time. For example, in the early 1990s my small company led, with the computer science department at UCL, a large consortium financed by government and large firms to develop practical applications of neural network technology.</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">The outcome was disappointing. It was rather like Trevithick&rsquo;s engine. Neural nets seemed to be able to do a few new things, but they were not obviously superior to well established tools of analysis. Everyone had the same experience, and enthusiasm waned.</p><div class="notice-header  notice-header--is-full-content-width notice-header--is-bordered">
1052					<div id="articlempu5">
1053							<div id="ezoic-pub-ad-placeholder-114"></div>
1054					</div>
1055
1056	</div><p class="wp-block-paragraph">Interest revived gradually with a paper published by Yoshua Bengio of Montreal in 2003 on a &ldquo;Neural Probabilistic Language Model&rdquo;.&nbsp; Further boosts were provided by papers in the 2010s by Bengio and Geoffrey Hinton. But by 2020 we had probably reached a stage equivalent to Locomotion no 1.&nbsp; We could certainly do valuable and useful things which had not previously been possible.</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">But the real <a href="https://www.cityam.com/people-and-organizations/ai/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&ldquo;Rocket moment&rdquo; for AI</a> came with the publication of ChatGPT at the end of 2022. This was indeed a revolutionary advance.&nbsp;</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph">Just like Rocket, these first versions are obsolete. Progress has been so phenomenal that the current worry is that AI may lead to the extinction of humanity.</p><div class="notice-header  notice-header--is-full-content-width notice-header--is-bordered">
1057					<div id="articlempu6">
1058							<div id="ezoic-pub-ad-placeholder-115"></div>
1059					</div>
1060
1061	</div><p class="wp-block-paragraph">If it does, we will no longer need to worry about productivity. But in the meantime, truly modern AI will give a massive boost over the coming decades.</p><p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Paul Ormerod is an Honorary Professor at the Alliance Business Sc
1061hool at the University of Manchester. You can follow him on Instagram @profpaulormerod</strong></p><aside class="read-more read-more--has-media read-more-auto">
1062	<div class="read-more__content">
1063					<h5 class="read-more__label">Read more</h5>
1064				<h4 class="read-more__title">
1065			<a class="read-more__link" href="https://www.cityam.com/if-britain-stops-believing-in-ai-well-sabotage-our-own-progress/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">If Britain stops believing in AI we&rsquo;ll sabotage our own progress</a>
1066		</h4>
1067	</div>
1068			<div class="read-more__media">
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1315					<img width="824" height="463" src="https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?w=824&amp;h=463&amp;crop=1" class="media hd-md" alt="Three people sabotage a robot AI with bad data, spray paint, and tangling wires, causing system errors." fetchpriority="auto" loading="lazy" decoding="async" sizes="auto, (max-width: 767px) 93px, (max-width: 1023px) 286px, 400px" srcset="https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=256,144 256w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=400,225 400w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=900,506 900w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=640,360 640w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=824,463 824w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=720,405 720w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=587,330 587w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=286,161 286w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AI-sabotage-e1789384507392.png?resize=203,114 203w">				</div>
1316			</div>
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1318	</article>
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1323		
1324		<h3 class="card__title">			<a href="https://www.cityam.com/why-are-the-ai-chiefs-calling-for-a-slowdown/">
1325				Why are the AI chiefs calling for a slowdown?			</a>
1326		</h3>
1327					<div class="card__meta">
1328									<span class="card__kicker card__kicker--business">AI</span>
1329				
1330							</div>
1331		
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1335				<div class="card__media-element">
1336					<img width="824" height="463" src="https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?w=824&amp;h=463&amp;crop=1" class="media hd-md" alt="Sam Altman discussing OpenAIs ChatGPT advancements at a press conference, emphasizing AI innovation and future developments" fetchpriority="auto" loading="lazy" decoding="async" sizes="auto, (max-width: 767px) 93px, (max-width: 1023px) 286px, 400px" srcset="https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=256,144 256w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=400,225 400w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=900,506 900w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=640,360 640w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=824,463 824w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=720,405 720w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=587,330 587w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=286,161 286w, https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Sam-Altman-OpenAI-ChatGPT-e1768841114333.jpg?resize=203,114 203w">				</div>
1337			</div>
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1344		
1345		<h3 class="card__title">			<a href="https://www.cityam.com/ninjatech-ai-launches-superninja-enterprise-a-turnkey-ai-workforce-platform-enterprises-own-and-run-unmetered-on-open-weight-model/">
1346				NinjaTech AI Launches SuperNinja Enterprise, a Turnkey AI Workforce Platform Enterprises Own and Run Unmetered on Open-Weight Model			</a>
1347		</h3>
1348					<div class="card__meta">
1349									<span class="card__kicker card__kicker--product-service">Business Wire</span>
1350				
1351							</div>
1352		
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1359		
1360		<h3 class="card__title">			<a href="https://www.cityam.com/anthropic-boss-warns-ai-could-outrun-our-ability-to-control-it/">
1361				Anthropic boss warns AI could &lsquo;outrun our ability&rsquo; to control it			</a>
1362		</h3>
1363					<div class="card__meta">
1364									<span class="card__kicker card__kicker--business">Tech</span>
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1382				Apple and Google defend safety records as UK clamps down on explicit teen content			</a>
1383		</h3>
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1385									<span class="card__kicker card__kicker--business">Tech</span>
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1403				Smartstream unveils new version of Smart Reconciliations Premium &ndash; agentic AI reconciliations with GRIT &ndash; Governance, ROI, Integration and Trust			</a>
1404		</h3>
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1406									<span class="card__kicker card__kicker--product-service">Business Wire</span>
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1418				Tech stocks slide as AI extinction warnings rattle markets			</a>
1419		</h3>
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1421									<span class="card__kicker card__kicker--business">Tech</span>
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1527							<svg width="32" height="32" fill="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 56.7 56.7"><title>Instagram</title><g> <path d="M28.2,16.7c-7,0-12.8,5.7-12.8,12.8s5.7,12.8,12.8,12.8S41,36.5,41,29.5S35.2,16.7,28.2,16.7z M28.2,37.7 c-4.5,0-8.2-3.7-8.2-8.2s3.7-8.2,8.2-8.2s8.2,3.7,8.2,8.2S32.7,37.7,28.2,37.7z"></path> <circle cx="41.5" cy="16.4" r="2.9"></circle> <path d="M49,8.9c-2.6-2.7-6.3-4.1-10.5-4.1H17.9c-8.7,0-14.5,5.8-14.5,14.5v20.5c0,4.3,1.4,8,4.2,10.7c2.7,2.6,6.3,3.9,10.4,3.9 h20.4c4.3,0,7.9-1.4,10.5-3.9c2.7-2.6,4.1-6.3,4.1-10.6V19.3C53,15.1,51.6,11.5,49,8.9z M48.6,39.9c0,3.1-1.1,5.6-2.9,7.3 s-4.3,2.6-7.3,2.6H18c-3,0-5.5-0.9-7.3-2.6C8.9,45.4,8,42.9,8,39.8V19.3c0-3,0.9-5.5,2.7-7.3c1.7-1.7,4.3-2.6,7.3-2.6h20.6 c3,0,5.5,0.9,7.3,2.7c1.7,1.8,2.7,4.3,2.7,7.2V39.9L48.6,39.9z"></path></g></svg>						</a>
1528					</li>
1529																<li class="social__actions-item">
1530						<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/cityam" class="social__action social__action--linkedin" target="cityamsocial-linkedin" aria-label="Follow us on LinkedIn" rel="noopener">
1531							<svg width="32" height="32" fill="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 512 512"><title>LinkedIn</title><path d="M473.305,-1.353c20.88,0 37.885,16.533 37.885,36.926l0,438.251c0,20.393 -17.005,36.954 -37.885,36.954l-436.459,0c-20.839,0 -37.773,-16.561 -37.773,-36.954l0,-438.251c0,-20.393 16.934,-36.926 37.773,-36.926l436.459,0Zm-37.829,436.389l0,-134.034c0,-65.822 -14.212,-116.427 -91.12,-116.427c-36.955,0 -61.739,20.263 -71.867,39.476l-1.04,0l0,-33.411l-72.811,0l0,244.396l75.866,0l0,-120.878c0,-31.883 6.031,-62.773 45.554,-62.773c38.981,0 39.468,36.461 39.468,64.802l0,118.849l75.95,0Zm-284.489,-244.396l-76.034,0l0,244.396l76.034,0l0,-244.396Zm-37.997,-121.489c-24.395,0 -44.066,19.735 -44.066,44.047c0,24.318 19.671,44.052 44.066,44.052c24.299,0 44.026,-19.734 44.026,-44.052c0,-24.312 -19.727,-44.047 -44.026,-44.047Z"></path></svg>						</a>
1532					</li>
1533									</ul>
1534
1535					<a href="https://apps.apple.com/us/app/city-a-m-business-news-live/id6459881626" aria-label="Download the City AM app via the Apple app store" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">
1536				<img src="https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/themes/cityam-v2/dist/images/app-store-button.png" width="148" height="44" loading="lazy" decoding="async" alt="" style="padding: 12px 12px 0;width: 230px;">
1537			</a>
1538			<a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.cityam.uk.news&amp;pli=1" aria-label="Download the City AM app via the Google Play app store" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">
1539				<img src="https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/themes/cityam-v2/dist/images/google-play-button.png" width="148" height="44" loading="lazy" decoding="async" alt="" style="padding: 12px 12px 0;width: 230px;">
1540			</a>
1541		
1542	</div>
1543	</nav>
1544
1545	<div class="footer__brand">
1546		<nav class="footer__brand-menus">
1547			<ul id="menu-city-a-m-bottom-rail-footer" class="footer__brand-menu"><li id="menu-item-2377759" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-2377759 menu-item--newsletters"><a href="https://mailchi.mp/cityam.com/newsletters" data-text="Newsletters">Newsletters</a></li>
1548<li id="menu-item-2404672" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-2404672 menu-item--advertising"><a href="https://cityamadvertisinghub.com/" data-text="Advertising">Advertising</a></li>
1549<li id="menu-item-1074870" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-1074870 menu-item--about"><a href="https://www.cityam.com/about/" data-text="About">About</a></li>
1550<li id="menu-item-19220" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-19220 menu-item--licensing"><a target="_blank" href="https://www.cityam.com/licensing-and-reuse-of-content/" data-text="Licensing">Licensing</a></li>
1551</ul>		</nav>
1552		<small class="footer__copyright">
1553			Copyright 2026 City AM Limited		</small>
1554	</div>
1555</footer>
1556
1557<div class="notice-header notice-header--is-sticky-footer notice-header--is-full-content-width notice-header--is-sticky">
1558	</div>
1559		
1559<script nonce="514524f931b46d90d3a4e40ad4f6e0e5">
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1560
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1565			(function () {
1566				document.addEventListener('click', function (event) {
1567					if (!event.target || !event.target.closest) {
1568						return;
1569					}
1570
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1573					if (!link) {
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1585<script id="wp-i18n-js" src="https://www.cityam.com/wp-includes/js/dist/i18n.min.js?ver=781d11515ad3d91786ec" nonce="514524f931b46d90d3a4e40ad4f6e0e5"></script>
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1590<script id="wp-parsely-loader-js-before" nonce="514524f931b46d90d3a4e40ad4f6e0e5">
1591window.wpParselySiteId = 'cityam.com';
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1593
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vendor: 1 bytes, line 1594
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vendor: 1 bytes, line 1595
1595
1596<script id="cityam-frontend-js-extra" nonce="514524f931b46d90d3a4e40ad4f6e0e5">
1597var cityamJS = {"ajaxUrl":"https://www.cityam.com/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php","doBackHome":"1","leaderboardEnabled":"1","leaderboardScrollThreshold":"150","leaderboardDisplayTime":"3000"};
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vendor: 1 bytes, line 1600
1600
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1601<script id="jetpack-stats-js-before" nonce="514524f931b46d90d3a4e40ad4f6e0e5">
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1606
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1607
1608		<!-- Ezoic - Ad Placements start -->
1609		
1609<script nonce="514524f931b46d90d3a4e40ad4f6e0e5">
1610			( function () {
1611				// Subscribers are spared every ad script server-side, but the page cache can
1612				// hand a subscriber a copy of the page that was rendered with ads in it.
1613				// block-gtm-scripts.js strips ad nodes on DOMContentLoaded, too late to help
1614				// here: ezstandalone.cmd drains the moment sa.min.js initialises, so the ad is
1615				// requested and counted before the node goes. Not asking for it at all is the
1616				// only version of this that does not bill an impression nobody saw. Cookie
1617				// name matches block-gtm-scripts.js; PHP sees the same one as 'fp_user'.
1618				var subscriber = document.cookie.split( '; ' ).filter( function ( row ) {
1619					return 0 === row.indexOf( 'fp.user=' );
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1621
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1627
1628				// Read the IDs off the page rather than from a PHP list built while
1629				// rendering. WordPress applies the_content more than once on some posts and
1630				// throws all but one result away, so a render-time list can name slots whose
1631				// markup never survived - Ezoic is then asked for placeholders that are not
1632				// in the DOM. The DOM is the only thing that knows what actually shipped.
1633				var prefix = 'ezoic-pub-ad-placeholder-';
1634				var seen = {};
1635				var ids = [];
1636
1637				Array.prototype.forEach.call(
1638					document.querySelectorAll( '[id^="' + prefix + '"]' ),
1639					function ( el ) {
1640						var id = parseInt( el.id.slice( prefix.length ), 10 );
1641						if ( id > 0 && ! seen[ id ] ) {
1642							seen[ id ] = true;
1643							ids.push( id );
1644						}
1645					}
1646				);
1647
1648				if ( ! ids.length ) {
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1650				}
1651
1652				window.ezstandalone = window.ezstandalone || {};
1653				ezstandalone.cmd = ezstandalone.cmd || [];
1654				ezstandalone.cmd.push( function () {
1655					ezstandalone.showAds.apply( null, ids );
1656				} );
1657			} )();
1658		</script>
1658
1659		<!-- Ezoic - Ad Placements end -->
1660				
1660<script nonce="514524f931b46d90d3a4e40ad4f6e0e5">
1661			(function() {
1662				var imgs = document.getElementsByTagName("img");
1663				Array.from(imgs).forEach((img) => img.addEventListener('error', (e) => e.target.style.display = "none"));
1664			})();
1665		</script>
1665
1666	</body>
1667</html>

Line numbers count LF bytes from the start of the resource, as the search results do. Vendor segments are library code the classifier recognised; they are stored but not indexed. Bytes are shown as Latin1 characters, one per byte.