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1<nav class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__localNav" aria-label="AI Progress page sections"><a href="#overview">Overview</a><a href="#limits">What AI canât do</a><a href="#evidence">Evidence</a><a href="/ai-progress/methodology">Methodology</a></nav><section class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__hero" id="overview"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__heroAmbient" aria-hidden="true"></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__heroCopy"><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__eyebrow">Independent capability measurement</p><h1>Choosely AI Progress Index</h1><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__heroDescriptor">How close AI is to doing complex digital work on its own.</p><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__heroSummary">A conservative, evidence-backed measure of what todayâs best AI can actually do â not what companies say it can do.</p><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__heroFact">Reviewed <!-- -->30 September 2026<!-- -->. The Index places frontier AI at <!-- -->49.8<!-- --> out of 100 across reasoning and adaptation, real-world work, and autonomy and agency.</p><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__snapshotMeta"><a href="/ai-progress/methodology">Methodology V<!-- -->1.0</a><span>Current approved snapshot</span><time dateTime="2026-09-23">23 September 2026</time></div></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__scoreStage" style="--score-angle:179.28deg;--score-width:49.8%" aria-label="Choosely AI Progress Index: 49.8 out of 100"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__scoreDial"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__scoreInner"><span>Current frontier</span><strong aria-hidden="true"><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__scoreInteger">49</span><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__scoreFraction">.<!-- -->8</span></strong><em>/ 100</em></div></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__scoreTrack"><i></i></div><p>Verified capabilityânot marketing claims.</p></div></section><section class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismSection" aria-labelledby="organism-heading"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismIntro"><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__eyebrow">AI Progress Visual</p><h2 id="organism-heading">The shape of AI capability</h2><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismDeck">One form, generated from the same three scores behind the Index.</p><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismExplanation"><p>The AI Progress Index measures reasoning and adaptation, real-world work, and autonomy and agency. This visual turns those dimensions into a single capability form.</p><p>Its broad crown reflects reasoning far ahead; its fragile centre shows work capability lagging; and its lower reach places autonomy between them.</p></div><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismCoda">As the Index changes, the shape changes with it.</p></div><figure class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismStage"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismImageFrame"><img alt="A luminous translucent organism whose broad crown, fragile center and reaching lower structures symbolize uneven AI capability." loading="lazy" width="1672" height="941" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismImage" style="color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 62vw" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=640&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC 640w, /_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=750&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC 750w, /_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=828&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC 828w, /_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=1080&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC 1080w, /_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=1200&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC 1200w, /_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=1920&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC 1920w, /_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=2048&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC 2048w, /_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=3840&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC 3840w" src="/_next/image?url=%2Fai-progress%2Forganism-hero-approved.png&w=3840&q=75&dpl=dpl_Eh55QhN7mJdsrLKaC4ZFMG49zNdC"/><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismAura" aria-hidden="true"></span><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismIllumination" aria-hidden="true"></span><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismEnergy" aria-hidden="true"></span><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismRegion ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismCrown" aria-hidden="true"></span><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismRegion ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismCore" aria-hidden="true"></span><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismRegion ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismLower" aria-hidden="true"></span><svg class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismSignals" viewBox="0 0 1672 941" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet" aria-hidden="true"><circle class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismSignalCrown" r="4.2"><animateMotion path="M836 505 C795 419 704 352 566 309 C459 275 384 208 336 128" dur="9.5s" begin="-1.8s" repeatCount="indef
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1inite"></animateMotion><animate attributeName="opacity" values="0;.42;.72;.5;0" dur="14.8s" begin="-10.4s" repeatCount="indefinite"></animate></circle><circle class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismSignalLower" r="3.1"><animateMotion path="M883 604 C945 638 1002 658 1061 674 C1122 690 1167 725 1194 777" dur="12.7s" begin="-6.6s" repeatCount="indefinite"></animateMotion><animate attributeName="opacity" values="0;.42;.72;.5;0" dur="12.7s" begin="-6.6s" repeatCount="indefinite"></animate></circle></svg><span class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismMotes" aria-hidden="true"><i></i><i></i><i></i><i></i><i></i><i></i><i></i></span></div><figcaption class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__organismCaption">CAPI visual form · Current canonical snapshot</figcaption></figure></section><section class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__section" aria-labelledby="pillars-heading"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__sectionIntro"><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__eyebrow">What is driving the score?</p><h2 id="pillars-heading">Three ways to understand where AI is now.</h2></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarGrid"><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarCard ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__reasoning"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarTop"><span><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M9 4.5a3 3 0 0 0-5 2.2v1.1A3.5 3.5 0 0 0 4 14v1a3.5 3.5 0 0 0 5 3.4m6-13.9a3 3 0 0 1 5 2.2v1.1a3.5 3.5 0 0 1 0 6.2v1a3.5 3.5 0 0 1-5 3.4M9 4v15m6-15v15M7 9h2m6 0h2M7 15h2m6 0h2"></path></svg></span><em>30<!-- -->% of index</em></div><strong>78.9</strong><h3>Reasoning & Adaptation</h3><p>Can AI figure out difficult problems and adapt when things change?</p><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarTrack"><i style="width:78.9%"></i></div><small>Static novel reasoning is near the V1 ceiling, while verified interactive adaptation has advanced sharply but remains incomplete.</small></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarCard ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__work"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarTop"><span><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><rect x="3" y="3" width="7" height="7" rx="1"></rect><rect x="14" y="3" width="7" height="7" rx="1"></rect><rect x="3" y="14" width="7" height="7" rx="1"></rect><rect x="14" y="14" width="7" height="7" rx="1"></rect></svg></span><em>30<!-- -->% of index</em></div><strong>25.7</strong><h3>Real-World Work</h3><p>Can AI reliably finish useful work from start to finish?</p><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarTrack"><i style="width:25.7%"></i></div><small>The weakest pillar: accepted professional deliverables remain much harder than polished demos suggest.</small></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarCard ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__autonomy"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarTop"><span><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="8"></circle><path d="m15.5 8.5-2.1 4.9-4.9 2.1 2.1-4.9 4.9-2.1Z"></path><path d="M12 2v2m0 16v2M2 12h2m16 0h2"></path></svg></span><em>40<!-- -->% of index</em></div><strong>46.2</strong><h3>Autonomy & Agency</h3><p>Can AI keep working on its own without constant human help?</p><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__pillarTrack"><i style="width:46.2%"></i></div><small>AI can reach into longer expert tasks, but strict end-to-end computer-workflow completion stays low.</small></article></div></section><section class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__section ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__liveSection" id="live-edge"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__sectionIntro"><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__eyebrow">What has actually been counted?</p><h2>The Live Edge</h2><p>Choosely separates proven capability from promising claims and unanswered questions.</p></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeGrid"><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeVerified"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeHeading"><span>Verified</span><strong>Proven and counted.</strong></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeItem"><strong>Adapting to hidden rules</strong><p>ARC-AGI-3 Semi-Private rises to 62.71% under the provider-neutral Standard harness.</p><small>ARC-AGI-3<!-- --> · Verified evidence</small></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeItem"><strong>Novel reasoning</strong><p>ARC-AGI-2 reaches 95.0% on the frozen Semi-Private surface.</p><small>ARC-AGI-2<!-- --> · Verified evidence</small></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeItem"><strong>Longer autonomous work</strong><p>AI can attempt work that would take human experts almost 12 hours, but uncertainty rises as tasks get longer.</p><small>METR<!-- --> · Verified evidence</small></div></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeChecking"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeHeading"><span>Being checked</span><strong>Interestingânot counted yet.</strong></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeItem"><strong>New benchmark results</strong><p>Checked before they can change the Index</p><small>CHECKING</small></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeItem"><strong>Company performance claims</strong><p>Not counted without independent evidence</p><small>EXCLUDED</small></div></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeOpen"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeHeading"><span>Still open</span><strong>Important capabilities not reliably solved.</strong></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeItem"><strong>A reliable history of progress</strong><p>This first snapshot is where the series begins</p><small>OPEN</small></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__edgeItem"><strong>Human impact signals</strong><p>Not published until defensible evidence exists</p><small>OPEN</small></div></article></div><a class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__textLink" href="/ai-progress/methodology#evidence-policy">View all evidence â</a></section><section class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__section ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__limitsSection" id="limits"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__limitsIntro"><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__eyebrow">What is holding AI back?</p><h2 id="open-gaps">What AI still canât do.</h2><p>Impressive demos are not the same as dependable autonomous work. These are the clearest gaps in the frozen evidence.</p></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__limitGrid"><article><span>0<!-- -->1</span><h3>Make interactive adaptation dependable</h3><p>ARC-AGI-3 has advanced sharply, but 62.71% still leaves substantial failure on hidden-rule environments.</p><small>ARC-AGI-3<!-- --> · <!-- -->62.71%</small></article><article><span>0<!-- -->2</span><h3>Deliver client-acceptable work</h3><p>Most professional projects still need human work before independent reviewers call the result client-ready.</p><small>RLI<!-- --> · <!-- -->20.83%</small></article><article><span>0<!-- -->3</span><h3>Finish computer workflows cleanly</h3><p>AI often makes useful progress on computer tasks but fails to complete every required step.</p><small>OSWorld 2.0<!-- --> · <!-- -->20.6% binary accuracy</small></article><article><span>0<!-- -->4</span><h3>Pass broad agent tasks in full</h3><p>Broad agent tasks only count when the whole job is finished correctly; partial progress does not pass.</p><small>ALE<!-- --> · <!-- -->31.6% full pass rate</small></article></div></section><section class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__section ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__timelineSection" id="timeline"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__sectionIntro"><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__eyebrow">How did capability reach this point?</p><h2>How AI got here.</h2><p>A few capability shifts changed what AI systems could plausibly do next. This is contextânot fabricated Index history.</p></div><ol class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__timeline"><li class=""><time>Mar 2023</time><span aria-hidden="true"></span><div><a href="https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-research/">GPT-4 launches</a><p>Broad multimodal reasoning advances</p></div></li><li class=""><time>Jun 2023</time><span aria-hidden="true"></span><div><a href="https://openai.com/index/function-calling-and-other-api-updates/">Function calling</a><p>Models begin using external tools</p></div></li><li class=""><time>Mar 2024</time><span aria-hidden="true"></span><div><a href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-family">Claude 3 Opus</a><p>Long context and robust analysis</p></div></li><li class=""><time>May 2024</time><span aria-hidden="true"></span><div><a href="https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/">GPT-4o</a><p>Real-time multimodal interaction</p></div></li><li class=""><time>2025â26</time><span aria-hidden="true"></span><div><a href="/ai-progress/methodology#architecture">Agentic systems</a><p>Autonomous step-by-step workflows</p></div></li><li class=""><time>Aug 2026</time><span aria-hidden="true"></span><div><a href="/ai-progress/methodology#calculation">AI Progress Index V1.0</a><p>First canonical measurement</p></div></li><li class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__timelineOpen"><time>Next</time><span aria-hidden="true"></span><div><a href="#open-gaps">Reliable autonomy</a><p>The work ahead</p></div></li></ol></section><section class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__section ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__evidenceSection" id="evidence"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__sectionIntro"><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__eyebrow">Why trust the measurement?</p><h2>What the Index is based on.</h2><p>Six independent tests. Exact results are frozen before they can influence the headline score.</p></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__evidenceGrid"><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__reasoning"><div><span>Novel reasoning</span><em>Verified</em></div><h3>95.0%</h3><p>AI can solve most difficult unfamiliar static puzzles on the frozen semi-private surface.</p><a href="https://arcprize.org/results/openai-gpt-6-astra">ARC-AGI-2<!-- --> â</a></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__reasoning"><div><span>Adapting to hidden rules</span><em>Verified</em></div><h3>62.71%</h3><p>AI can now solve a majority of the semi-private interactive adaptation surface under ARC Prizeâs provider-neutral Standard harness.</p><a href="https://arcprize.org/results/openai-gpt-6-astra">ARC-AGI-3<!-- --> â</a></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__work"><div><span>Professional work</span><em>Verified</em></div><h3>20.83%</h3><p>Most professional projects still do not reach a client-acceptable finish without human help.
1</p><a href="https://labs.scale.com/leaderboard/rli">RLI<!-- --> â</a></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__work"><div><span>Broad agent tasks</span><em>Verified</em></div><h3>31.6% full pass rate</h3><p>AI completes just under one in three broad professional agent tasks in full on the frozen ALE-V1 surface.</p><a href="https://agents-last-exam.org/leaderboard">ALE<!-- --> â</a></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__autonomy"><div><span>Longer autonomous work</span><em>Verified</em></div><h3>~11h 59m at 50% success</h3><p>AI can now tackle tasks that take human experts hours, but reliability falls as work gets longer.</p><a href="https://metr.org/time-horizons/">METR<!-- --> â</a></article><article class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__autonomy"><div><span>Computer use</span><em>Verified</em></div><h3>20.6% binary accuracy</h3><p>AI often makes partial progress across computer workflows but rarely finishes them cleanly.</p><a href="https://osworld-v2.xlang.ai/">OSWorld 2.0<!-- --> â</a></article></div><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__evidenceActions"><a href="/ai-progress/methodology">Explore the full methodology â</a><a href="/ai-progress/data.json">JSON data â</a><a href="/ai-progress/data.csv">CSV data â</a><a href="/reports/ai-tool-changes/2026-08">Latest Choosely Report â</a></div></section><section class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__changeBrief" id="change-brief"><div class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__changeCopy"><p class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__eyebrow">The Change Brief</p><h2>Follow the frontier as it evolves.</h2><p>Weekly intelligence on the AI changes that actually matter.</p><form class="ai-progress-module__Q4--qa__signupForm"><label class="sr-only" for="ai-progress-email">Email address</label><input id="ai-progress-email" type="email" required="" placeholder="[email protected]" value=""/><button type="submit"><span aria-hidden="true">â</span>Get The Change Brief</button></form><small>By submitting, youâre asking to receive The Change Brief by email. 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