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52<main id=main-content class=blog-editorial tabindex=-1><div><section class="shell blog-reading"><div class=docs-book><div class="docs-book__rail docs-book__rail--flow blog-lrail" data-rail-left><div class=docs-book__stick><div class="blog-pin blog-pin--left" data-rail-pin=left><nav class=docs-railtoc aria-label="In this guide"><div class="eyebrow eyebrow--muted docs-railtoc__eyebrow">In this guide</div><ol class=docs-railtoc__list><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#the-delta-number-irrelevant>The Delta: The Number Doesn’t Matter</a><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#wait-for-dust-strategy>The “Wait for the Dust” Strategy</a><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#why-this-works>Why This Works</a><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#danger-of-slippage>The Danger of “Slippage”</a><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#conclusion>Conclusion</a></ol></nav></div></div><div class=blog-rail-probe data-rail-probe aria-hidden=true></div></div><div class=blog-reading__main><header class="blog-hero blog-hero__main blog-reading__hero"><div class=blog-hero__crumbs><nav id=breadcrumbs aria-label=Breadcrumb class=crumbs><ol class=crumbs__list><li class=crumbs__item><a href=/ class="no-hover-scale crumbs__link">Home</a><li class=crumbs__item><span class=crumbs__sep aria-hidden=true>/</span> 53<a href=/blog/ class="no-hover-scale crumbs__link">Blog</a><li class=crumbs__item><span class=crumbs__sep aria-hidden=true>/</span> 54<span class=crumbs__current aria-current=page>Trading the News: A Non-Gamblerâs Guide to NFP</span></ol></nav></div><span class=eyebrow>Fundamental Analysis</span><h1 class="page-title blog-hero__title">Trading the News: A Non-Gamblerâs Guide to NFP</h1><p class=blog-hero__lede>Stop guessing the number. Learn how to trade the reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls with a specific 15-minute strategy.<div class=blog-byline><span>By <a href=/about/ class=blog-byline__link rel=author>Pyrem R.</a></span> 55<span class=blog-dot></span> 56<time datetime=2024-01-20>January 20, 2024</time> 57<span class=blog-dot></span> 58<span class=blog-byline__soft>Updated September 29, 2026</span> 59<span class=blog-dot></span> 60<span class=blog-byline__soft>5 min read</span></div></header><details class=reading-drawer><summary class=reading-drawer__summary>In this guide</summary><ol class=docs-railtoc__list><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#the-delta-number-irrelevant>The Delta: The Number Doesn’t Matter</a><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#wait-for-dust-strategy>The “Wait for the Dust” Strategy</a><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#why-this-works>Why This Works</a><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#danger-of-slippage>The Danger of “Slippage”</a><li><a class=docs-railtoc__link href=#conclusion>Conclusion</a></ol></details><article id=technical-analysis-content class=blog-article__body><div class="blog-figure blog-figure--banner" data-banner><img class=blog-figure__poster src=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-start.jpg data-final=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner.jpg width=1280 height=720 alt aria-hidden=true fetchpriority=high decoding=async> 61<video class=blog-figure__video data-motion-banner data-src=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner.mp4 width=1280 height=720 muted playsinline preload=none aria-hidden=true tabindex=-1></video> 62<button type=button class=motion-replay data-mode=replay aria-label="Replay banner animation" inert> 63<svg class="motion-replay__icon motion-replay__icon--replay" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" height="20" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 109-9A9.75 9.75.0 005.26 5.74L3 8"/><path d="M3 3v5h5"/></svg> 64<svg class="motion-replay__icon motion-replay__icon--play" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" height="20" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"><path d="M8 5.5v13L18.5 12z"/></svg></button></div>
64<script>(function(){if(window.__rrBanner)return;if(window.__rrBanner=1,e=document.querySelector("[data-banner]"),!e)return;var t=e.querySelector("video"),n=e.querySelector(".motion-replay"),s=e.querySelector("img");if(!t||!n)return;var e,l=s&&s.getAttribute("src"),o=s&&s.getAttribute("data-final"),u=navigator.connection,g=matchMedia("(prefers-reduced-motion: reduce)").matches||u&&u.saveData||!("IntersectionObserver"in window),r=0,i=0,c=0,a=0;function d(t){n.setAttribute("data-mode",t?"play":"replay"),n.setAttribute("aria-label",(t?"Play":"Replay")+" banner animation"),n.removeAttribute("inert"),document.activeElement===e&&n.focus({preventScroll:!0})}function v(){document.activeElement===n&&(e.tabIndex=-1,e.focus({preventScroll:!0})),n.setAttribute("inert","")}function h(){t.getAttribute("src")||(t.muted=!0,t.src=t.getAttribute("data-src"))}function m(){h(),r=1,c=0,i=1,v();var e=t.play();e&&e.catch&&e.catch(function(){i=0,d(!a)})}if(t.addEventListener("playing",function(){e.setAttribute("data-state","playing")}),t.addEventListener("ended",function(){i=0,a=1,d(0)}),n.addEventListener("click",function(){a&&(a=0,t.currentTime=0),!r&&o&&l!==o&&(s.src=l),m()}),g){o&&l!==o&&(s.src=o),d(1);return}function f(){h(),new IntersectionObserver(function(e){e[0].isIntersecting?(!r||c)&&m():i&&(c=1,i=0,t.pause())},{threshold:.35}).observe(e)}function p(){"requestIdleCallback"in window?requestIdleCallback(f,{timeout:2e3}):setTimeout(f,200)}document.readyState==="complete"?p():window.addEventListener("load",p,{once:!0})})()</script>
64<div id=authoritative-trading-guide class="article-content prose-body"><p>Itâs the first Friday of the month. 8:29 AM New York time. 65Traders around the world are staring at their screens, fingers hovering over the mouse. 66The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is about to drop.<p>A novice trader thinks: <em>“I bet the jobs number will be good. I’ll buy now and catch the spike.”</em><p>At 8:30:01, the number comes out. Itâs better than expected! 67The trader buys. 68The chart spikes up 20 pips… and then crashes 80 pips in ten seconds. 69Account blown.<p>Welcome to News Trading. If you treat it like a casino, the house always wins.<h3 id=our-data-nfp class=md-h3>When NFP Comes Out</h3><p>The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Employment Situation report, which contains the NFP number, at <strong>8:30 AM New York time</strong>, usually on the first Friday of the month (<a href=https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm class=md-link target=_blank rel="noopener noreferrer">BLS release schedule</a>). 70In the first minutes after the release, price often jumps one way and then reverses: a false move. Fast orders hit the market before the real direction is clear. If you enter at 8:30:01, you are the one providing the liquidity.<div id=executive-summary class=key-takeaways><h2 id=summary-title class=key-takeaways__title>Key Findings</h2><ul id=summary-points class=key-takeaways__list><li><strong>The Volatility:</strong> NFP is one of the biggest scheduled volatility events of the month for USD pairs.<li><strong>The Gap:</strong> Slippage can be severe. A stop can fill well past its price when the market jumps.<li><strong>The Strategy:</strong> "Wait for the Dust" (entering after 15 mins) avoids the 50/50 gamble of the initial spike.</ul></div><h2 id=the-delta-number-irrelevant class=md-h2>The Delta: The Number Doesn’t Matter</h2><p>Here is the secret that professional desk traders know: <strong>The raw number is irrelevant.</strong> 71What matters is the <strong>Market’s Perception</strong> of the number relative to:<ol><li>The Consensus (Forecast).<li>The Central Bank’s current stance.</ol><p>If the Fed is desperate to cut rates, a “Bad” jobs report might actually send the stock market soaring (because bad news = rate cuts = free money). 72If you just read “Bad Number = Sell,” you will be wrong half the time.<figure class=motion-figure data-motion-fig><div class=motion-figure__frame><video class=motion-figure__video data-motion src=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/nfp-forecast-difference.mp4 poster=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/nfp-forecast-difference-start.jpg data-poster-final=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/nfp-forecast-difference.jpg width=960 height=540 muted playsinline preload=none aria-label="Two jobs reports side by side: the first comes in above its forecast; the second is a bigger number but lands below its higher forecast, so it is the weaker report."></video> 73<button type=button class=motion-replay data-mode=replay aria-label="Replay animation" inert> 74<svg class="motion-replay__icon motion-replay__icon--replay" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" height="20" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 109-9A9.75 9.75.0 005.26 5.74L3 8"/><path d="M3 3v5h5"/></svg> 75<svg class="motion-replay__icon motion-replay__icon--play" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" height="20" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"><path d="M8 5.5v13L18.5 12z"/></svg></button></div><figcaption class=motion-figure__caption>Price reacts to the difference from the forecast.</figcaption></figure>
75<script>(function(e){document.readyState==="loading"?document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",e):e()})(function(){if(window.__rrMotion)return;window.__rrMotion=1;var n=navigator.connection,e=matchMedia("(prefers-reduced-motion: reduce)").matches||n&&n.saveData||!("IntersectionObserver"in window),i=e?null:new IntersectionObserver(function(e){e.forEach(function(e){var t=e.target.__rrSeen;t&&t(e.isIntersecting)})},{threshold:.35}),t=e?null:new IntersectionObserver(function(e){e.forEach(function(e){e.isIntersecting&&(e.target.preload="auto",t.unobserve(e.target))})},{rootMargin:"100% 0px"}),s=[];function o(){s.forEach(function(e){t.observe(e)})}document.querySelectorAll("[data-motion-fig]").forEach(function(t){if(n=t.querySelector("video"),o=t.querySelector(".motion-replay"),!n||!o)return;var n,o,l=o.parentNode,d=0,a=0,u=0,r=0,h=0,f=n.getAttribute("poster"),m=n.getAttribute("data-poster-final");function c(e){o.setAttribute("data-mode",e?"play":"replay"),o.setAttribute("aria-label",e?"Play animation":"Replay animation"),o.removeAttribute("inert"),document.activeElement===l&&o.focus({preventScroll:!0})}function j(){document.activeElement===o&&(l.tabIndex=-1,l.focus({preventScroll:!0})),o.setAttribute("inert","")}function p(){var e=n.duration;a=0,r=1,n.pause(),e>1&&n.currentTime>e-1&&(n.currentTime=e-1),c(0)}function g(){var e=n.duration;if(e>1&&n.currentTime>=e-1)return p(),1}function y(){h=0,a&&!g()&&v()}function v(){n.requestVideoFrameCallback&&!h&&(h=1,n.requestVideoFrameCallback(y))}function b(){d=1,u=0,a=1,j();var e=n.play();e&&e.catch&&e.catch(function(){a=0,c(!r)})}if(n.addEventListener("playing",v),n.addEventListener("timeupdate",function(){a&&g()}),n.addEventListener("ended",function(){r||p()}),o.addEventListener("click",function(){r&&(r=0,n.currentTime=0),!d&&f!==m&&n.setAttribute("poster",f),b()}),e){m&&n.setAttribute("poster",m),c(1);return}s.push(n),n.__rrSeen=function(e){e?(!d||u)&&b():a&&(u=1,a=0,n.pause())},i.observe(n)}),t&&(document.readyState==="complete"?o():window.addEventListener("load",o,{once:!0}))})</script>
75<h2 id=wait-for-dust-strategy class=md-h2>The “Wait for the Dust” Strategy</h2><p>The safest way to trade NFP is to refuse to play the guessing game. 76We use the <strong>15-Minute Rule</strong>: let the first 15 minutes of false moves play out, then trade what is left.<div id=prose-table-0 class="md-table prose-table-wrapper"><div class=md-table__desktop><div class=md-table__frame><div class=md-table__scroll><table><thead><tr><th>Time (New York)<th>What happens<th>What you do<tbody><tr><td>8:25 AM<td>The release is five minutes away<td>Stay out; no new trades, no tight stops<tr><td>8:30 AM<td>The number drops; spreads can widen and price jumps both ways<td>Nothing. Watch only<tr><td>8:45 AM<td>The first 15-minute candle after the release closes<td>Read it: a strong bar or a doji<tr><td>After 8:45 AM<td>Strong bar: price usually pulls back a little<td>Trade in that bar’s direction after the pullback; doji: no trade</table></div></div></div><div class=md-table__mobile><div class=md-table__cards><div class=md-table__card><div class=md-table__card-title>8:25 AM</div><dl class=md-table__fields><div class=md-table__field><dt class=md-table__label>What happens<dd class=md-table__value>The release is five minutes away</div><div class=md-table__field><dt class=md-table__label>What you do<dd class=md-table__value>Stay out; no new trades, no tight stops</div></dl></div><div class=md-table__card><div class=md-table__card-title>8:30 AM</div><dl class=md-table__fields><div class=md-table__field><dt class=md-table__label>What happens<dd class=md-table__value>The number drops; spreads can widen and price jumps both ways</div><div class=md-table__field><dt class=md-table__label>What you do<dd class=md-table__value>Nothing. Watch only</div></dl></div><div class=md-table__card><div class=md-table__card-title>8:45 AM</div><dl class=md-table__fields><div class=md-table__field><dt class=md-table__label>What happens<dd class=md-table__value>The first 15-minute candle after the release closes</div><div class=md-table__field><dt class=md-table__label>What you do<dd class=md-table__value>Read it: a strong bar or a doji</div></dl></div><div class=md-table__card><div class=md-table__card-title>After 8:45 AM</div><dl class=md-table__fields><div class=md-table__field><dt class=md-table__label>What happens<dd class=md-table__value>Strong bar: price usually pulls back a little</div><div class=md-table__field><dt class=md-table__label>What you do<dd class=md-table__value>Trade in that bar’s direction after the pullback; doji: no trade</div></dl></div></div></div></div><h3 id=step-1-sidelines class=md-h3>Step 1: The Sidelines (8:25 AM - 8:45 AM)</h3><p>Do nothing. Literally nothing. 77When the data drops at 8:30 AM, you will often see a “Whipsaw.” Price rips up, takes out buy-side liquidity, rips down, takes out sell-side liquidity. 78This is the market clearing the board. Do not be on the board.<h3 id=step-2-assessment class=md-h3>Step 2: The Assessment (8:45 AM)</h3><p>At 8:45 AM (15 minutes after release), the initial panic is over. The algorithms have digested the data. The “True Trend” for the session usually begins here.<p>Look at the M15 candle that just closed.<ul><li>Is it a massive bullish <a href=/blog/engulfing-candle-strategy/ class=md-link>engulfing candle</a>?<li>Is it a pin bar rejecting a key level?</ul><h3 id=step-3-entry class=md-h3>Step 3: The Entry</h3><p>Now you trade the technicals <em>in the direction of the fundamental bias</em>.<ul><li><strong>Scenario A:</strong> Data was strong (Bullish USD). M15 candle is a strong red bar on EUR/USD (Bearish Euro).<ul><li><em>Action:</em> Wait for a small pullback, then sell (go short). Put the stop above the pullback high and the target at least twice the risk.</ul><li><strong>Scenario B:</strong> Data was mixed. M15 candle is a Doji (indecision).<ul><li><em>Action:</em> No trade. The market is confused. Walk away.</ul></ul><figure class=motion-figure data-motion-fig><div class=motion-figure__frame><video class=motion-figure__video data-motion src=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/nfp-wait-for-the-dust.mp4 poster=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/nfp-wait-for-the-dust-start.jpg data-poster-final=/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/nfp-wait-for-the-dust.jpg width=960 height=540 muted playsinline preload=none aria-label="EUR/USD 1-minute chart: no trades from 8:25 to 8:45 while price jumps both ways, the 15-minute candle closes strong red, then a sell on the pullback to the 8:45 close with a stop above the pullback and a target at 2 times the risk."></video> 79<button type=button class=motion-replay data-mode=replay aria-label="Replay animation" inert> 80<svg class="motion-replay__icon motion-replay__icon--replay" viewB
80ox="0 0 24 24" width="20" height="20" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 109-9A9.75 9.75.0 005.26 5.74L3 8"/><path d="M3 3v5h5"/></svg> 81<svg class="motion-replay__icon motion-replay__icon--play" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" height="20" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"><path d="M8 5.5v13L18.5 12z"/></svg></button></div><figcaption class=motion-figure__caption>Sit out 8:25 to 8:45, then sell the pullback.</figcaption></figure>
81<script>(function(e){document.readyState==="loading"?document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",e):e()})(function(){if(window.__rrMotion)return;window.__rrMotion=1;var n=navigator.connection,e=matchMedia("(prefers-reduced-motion: reduce)").matches||n&&n.saveData||!("IntersectionObserver"in window),i=e?null:new IntersectionObserver(function(e){e.forEach(function(e){var t=e.target.__rrSeen;t&&t(e.isIntersecting)})},{threshold:.35}),t=e?null:new IntersectionObserver(function(e){e.forEach(function(e){e.isIntersecting&&(e.target.preload="auto",t.unobserve(e.target))})},{rootMargin:"100% 0px"}),s=[];function o(){s.forEach(function(e){t.observe(e)})}document.querySelectorAll("[data-motion-fig]").forEach(function(t){if(n=t.querySelector("video"),o=t.querySelector(".motion-replay"),!n||!o)return;var n,o,l=o.parentNode,d=0,a=0,u=0,r=0,h=0,f=n.getAttribute("poster"),m=n.getAttribute("data-poster-final");function c(e){o.setAttribute("data-mode",e?"play":"replay"),o.setAttribute("aria-label",e?"Play animation":"Replay animation"),o.removeAttribute("inert"),document.activeElement===l&&o.focus({preventScroll:!0})}function j(){document.activeElement===o&&(l.tabIndex=-1,l.focus({preventScroll:!0})),o.setAttribute("inert","")}function p(){var e=n.duration;a=0,r=1,n.pause(),e>1&&n.currentTime>e-1&&(n.currentTime=e-1),c(0)}function g(){var e=n.duration;if(e>1&&n.currentTime>=e-1)return p(),1}function y(){h=0,a&&!g()&&v()}function v(){n.requestVideoFrameCallback&&!h&&(h=1,n.requestVideoFrameCallback(y))}function b(){d=1,u=0,a=1,j();var e=n.play();e&&e.catch&&e.catch(function(){a=0,c(!r)})}if(n.addEventListener("playing",v),n.addEventListener("timeupdate",function(){a&&g()}),n.addEventListener("ended",function(){r||p()}),o.addEventListener("click",function(){r&&(r=0,n.currentTime=0),!d&&f!==m&&n.setAttribute("poster",f),b()}),e){m&&n.setAttribute("poster",m),c(1);return}s.push(n),n.__rrSeen=function(e){e?(!d||u)&&b():a&&(u=1,a=0,n.pause())},i.observe(n)}),t&&(document.readyState==="complete"?o():window.addEventListener("load",o,{once:!0}))})</script>
81<aside class=blog-demo id=live-chart aria-labelledby=live-chart-title><div class=blog-demo__head><div class="eyebrow blog-demo__eyebrow">RelicusRoad / Live Demo</div><h3 class=blog-demo__title id=live-chart-title>See RelicusRoad Pro Work on a Real Chart</h3><div class=blog-demo__text>Key lines and the trend drawn for you, so you can focus on the trade.</div></div><div class=home-kit data-home-kit data-kit-sets='[{"key":"recommended","name":"Recommended","tools":["sr","road","al","fibos","reversal"],"trendbar":true},{"key":"strategy-1","name":"Road + S/R + Trendlines","tools":["road","sr","trendlines"],"trendbar":true},{"key":"strategy-2","name":"Local Trendline","tools":["trendlines","road","supertrend"],"trendbar":true},{"key":"strategy-4","name":"Multi-Pair Scalp","tools":["sr","road"],"trendbar":false},{"key":"strategy-7","name":"Reversal + Trend","tools":["reversal","supertrend","sr","al","hlo","fibos"],"trendbar":false},{"key":"all","name":"All 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163</aside><h2 id=why-this-works class=md-h2>Why This Works</h2><p><figure class=md-figure><a class=md-figure__zoom href=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-release-spike_hu_1cef711cdd811e5f.webp aria-label="Open full-size image: EUR/USD 1-minute candles: quiet before 8:30, then a spike up and a hard drop right after the release"><div class=md-figure__frame><picture><source srcset=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-release-spike_hu_4c42673cb49cee82.webp type=image/webp media="(max-width: 768px)"><source srcset=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-release-spike_hu_e753580127fddad3.webp type=image/webp media="(min-width: 769px) and (max-width: 1024px)"><source srcset=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-release-spike_hu_9a24df0209229309.webp type=image/webp media="(min-width: 1025px)"><img src=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-release-spike_hu_e753580127fddad3.webp alt="EUR/USD 1-minute candles: quiet before 8:30, then a spike up and a hard drop right after the release" width=1024 height=538 sizes="(max-width: 768px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 90vw, 900px" loading=lazy decoding=async></picture></div></a></figure><p>You are sacrificing the “first 50 pips” of the move. 164But you are avoiding the coin-flip of the first spike.<p>Trading is about Probability, not Possibility. 165Is it <em>possible</em> to guess right and make a fortune in 3 seconds? Yes. 166Is it <em>probable</em> you can do that consistently? No.<h2 id=danger-of-slippage class=md-h2>The Danger of “Slippage”</h2><p><figure class=md-figure><a class=md-figure__zoom href=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-slippage_hu_58260d3191590f3c.webp aria-label="Open full-size image: A stop set just under the quiet range before 8:30 fills lower than its price, inside the drop right after the release"><div class=md-figure__frame><picture><source srcset=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-slippage_hu_bdcd4be940821d29.webp type=image/webp media="(max-width: 768px)"><source srcset=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-slippage_hu_551d77f109c35dea.webp type=image/webp media="(min-width: 769px) and (max-width: 1024px)"><source srcset=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-slippage_hu_cc03e56cf10769f7.webp type=image/webp media="(min-width: 1025px)"><img src=/images/blog/trading-nfp-news-guide/banner-slippage_hu_551d77f109c35dea.webp alt="A stop set just under the quiet range before 8:30 fills lower than its price, inside the drop right after the release" width=1024 height=538 sizes="(max-width: 768px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 90vw, 900px" loading=lazy decoding=async></picture></div></a></figure><p>Even if you have a Stop Loss, NFP can kill you. 167In the millisecond the news drops, liquidity evaporates and the spread can widen to many times its normal size. 168If your Stop Loss is at 1.1050, and the <a href=/blog/gaps-trading-strategy/ class=md-link>price gaps</a> from 1.1055 to 1.1040, <strong>your stop will be filled at 1.1040</strong>. 169You just lost 10 pips more than you planned. That is the stop order doing exactly what <a href=/blog/forex-order-types-explained/ class=md-link>a stop order is built to do</a>: trigger at your level, then fill at whatever the book is offering.<p>This is why we <strong>never</strong> hold tight stops through the release. Either be out of the market, or have a swing-trade stop that is far, far away.<h2 id=conclusion class=md-h2>Conclusion</h2><p>NFP is a spectator sport for the first 15 minutes. 170Let the gamblers place their bets. Let the algorithms fight for liquidity. 171Once the dust settles and the winner is clear, you step in and ride the trend.<p>Patience pays.<p><strong>Will you gamble on the spike, or trade the real trend?</strong></div><div class=blog-share><div class="center-row blog-share__row"><div class=blog-share__group><span class=blurb>Share:</span> 172<a class="no-hover-scale blog-share__btn" href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%253A%252F%252Frelicusroad.com%252Fblog%252Ftrading-nfp-news-guide%252F" target=_blank rel="noopener noreferrer" aria-label="Share on Facebook">
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class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/bond-yields-forex-strategy/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>The Crystal Ball: Trading Forex with Bond Yields</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/interest-rate-parity-guide/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>Why You Can't Beat the Bank: Interest Rate Parity Explained</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/carry-trade-strategy-2025/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>The Carry Trade Is Back: How to Profit from Interest Rate Differentials</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/commodity-currencies-guide/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>Gold, Oil, and Milk: Trading the Commodity Currencies</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/safe-haven-currencies/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>When the World Burns: The Swiss Franc and Gold</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/dollar-smile-theory/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>The Dollar Smile Theory: Why Bad News is Good for the Greenback</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/stagflation-trading-strategy/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>Stagflation Survival Guide: What to Buy When the Economy Stalls</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/geopolitics-trading-strategy/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>War and Pips: How Geopolitics Moves the Needle</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/how-war-affects-forex-trading-1/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>How War Affects Forex: A Geopolitical Risk Framework</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/cot-report-strategy/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>
177Follow the Big Money: How to Read the COT Report</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/ai-sentiment-analysis/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>Using AI to Decode the Fed: Sentiment Analysis for Retail</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/vix-forex-strategy/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>The Fear Index: Using VIX to Time Forex Reversals</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/us-policy-uncertainty-a-risk-first-trading-framework/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>Trading Through US Policy Chaos: A Risk-First Framework</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/forex-vs-crypto-volatility/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>Bitcoin vs. Euro: Where Should Your Volatility Capital Go?</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/seasonality-trading-guide/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>The January Effect: Does the Calendar Predict Price?</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/eurjpy-price-forecast-how-to-trade-the-18400-zone/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>EUR/JPY Price Forecast: How to Trade the 184.00 Zone</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/3-nzdusd-levels-smart-traders-should-watch-now/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>3 NZD/USD Levels Smart Traders Should Watch Now</span></a><li class=hub__sibling><a href=/blog/contrarian-trading-strategy/ class=hub__sibling-link><span class=hub__sibling-title>The Contrarian: Buying When Everyone is Screaming Sell</span></a></ul></section><nav id=article-navigation class=blog-artnav aria-label="More blog articles"><p class=blog-artnav__label>Continue reading<div class=blog-artnav__grid><a class="no-hover-scale blog-artnav__link" href=/blog/psychological-levels-strategy/ rel=prev><span class="eyebrow eyebrow--muted">Previous article</span> 178<span class=artnav-title>The Power of Zeros: Why 1.0000 is a Brick Wall</span> 179</a><a class="no-hover-scale blog-artnav__link blog-artnav__link--next" href=/blog/stagflation-trading-strategy/ rel=next><span class="eyebrow eyebrow--muted">Next article</span> 180<span class=artnav-title>Stagflation Survival Guide: What to Buy When the Economy Stalls</span></a></div></nav></article></div><aside class="blog-sidebar docs-book__rail docs-book__rail--end docs-book__rail--stack docs-book__rail--flow" id=blog-single-sidebar><div class=docs-book__stick><div class="blog-pin blog-pin--right" data-rail-pin=right><aside class="docs-pcard docs-pcard--rail" aria-label="RelicusRoad Pro"><div class=docs-pcard__shot><img src=/images/products/relicusroad-pro/RelicusRoad_Pro_Chart_Image_1_hu_b3d444751a56de2f.webp alt="RelicusRoad Pro on a MetaTrader chart" class=docs-pcard__img width=480 height=252 loading=lazy></div><div class=docs-pcard__body><div class="eyebrow eyebrow--muted docs-pcard__eyebrow">All-in-one indicator suite</div><div class=docs-pcard__title>RelicusRoad Pro</div><div class=docs-pcard__subtitle>The Institutional Market Operating System</div><div class=docs-pcard__meta><span class=docs-pcard__platform>MT4 · MT5 · TradingView</span> 181<span class=docs-pcard__price>$67 / month</span></div><a class="button button--cta docs-pcard__cta" href=/products/relicusroad-pro/ data-track-click=true data-track-event=ViewContent data-track-product="RelicusRoad Pro" data-track-platform=MT4/MT5/TradingView>See RelicusRoad Pro</a></div></aside></div></div><section class="card blog-inset" id=sidebar-related-section><h3 class="eyebrow eyebrow--muted" id=related-posts-title>Related articles</h3><div class=blog-related id=related-posts-list><div class=blog-related__item><p class=blog-related__title><a href=/blog/cpi-release-strategy/ class="no-hover-scale blog-related__link">CPI Release: The Most Dangerous 60 Seconds in Trading</a><p class=blog-related__excerpt>Inflation is the only number that matters to the Fed. 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1846.048 486.048.0 00610.7 405.729a1.882 1.882.0 00.765-1.352C623.729 277.594 590.933 167.465 524.531 69.836zM222.491 337.58c-28.972.0-52.844-26.587-52.844-59.239S193.056 219.1 222.491 219.1c29.665.0 53.306 26.82 52.843 59.239.0 32.654-23.41 59.241-52.843 59.241zm195.38.0c-28.971.0-52.843-26.587-52.843-59.239S388.437 219.1 417.871 219.1c29.667.0 53.307 26.82 52.844 59.239.0 32.654-23.177 59.241-52.844 59.241z"/></svg></a></div></section></aside></div><section class=plist-suggest aria-labelledby=plist-suggest-title><div class=plist-sechead><div><h2 class="heading plist-sechead__title" id=plist-suggest-title>Tools to try</h2><p class=plist-sechead__sub>Single RelicusRoad indicators for MT4 and MT5, each one standalone.</div><a class="plist-sechead__meta plist-suggest__all" href=/products/>All tools 185<svg class="plist-icon" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6"/></svg></a></div><div class="plist-grid plist-grid--4 plist-grid--suggest"><a href=/products/relicusroad-dynamic-circles/ class=plist-card data-product-card data-category=structure data-price=39 data-weight=22 data-name="Dynamic Circles" data-text="dynamic circles structure turning points marked at three lookback lengths at once, 9, 60 and 156 bars, each circle labelled with its range."><span class=plist-card__shot><img class=plist-card__icon src=/images/tools/reversal_hu_2119d11eb09ccdb9.webp srcset="/images/tools/reversal_hu_2119d11eb09ccdb9.webp 280w, /images/tools/reversal_hu_c89264e92e964cd5.webp 560w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 45vw, (max-width: 1280px) 30vw, 22vw" width=256 height=256 alt aria-hidden=true loading=lazy decoding=async> 186</span><span class=plist-card__body><span class="heading-sm plist-card__title">Dynamic Circles</span> 187<span class=plist-card__desc>Read swing structure at three scales without drawing a line. Bigger circles mark the turns that mattered most.</span> 188</span><span class=plist-card__foot><span class=plist-card__price>$39</span> 189<span class="plist-card__go plist-card__go--trial">Free Demo 190<svg class="plist-icon" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6"/></svg></span> 191</span></a><a href=/products/relicusroad-supertrend/ class=plist-card data-product-card data-category=trend data-price=0 data-weight=23 data-name=SuperTrend data-text="supertrend trend the classic atr supertrend with nothing on top: a trailing line under price in an uptrend, above it in a downtrend."><span class=plist-card__shot><img class=plist-card__icon src=/images/tools/supertrend_hu_634701f2e1e6a17.webp srcset="/images/tools/supertrend_hu_634701f2e1e6a17.webp 280w, /images/tools/supertrend_hu_ca11c839a6b70b35.webp 560w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 45vw, (max-width: 1280px) 30vw, 22vw" width=256 height=256 alt aria-hidden=true loading=lazy decoding=async> 192</span><span class=plist-card__body><span class="heading-sm plist-card__title">SuperTrend</span> 193<span class=plist-card__desc>Settle which way the trend leans and where to trail a stop. One volatility-sized line flips color when the trend turns.</span> 194</span><span class=plist-card__foot><span class="plist-card__price plist-card__price--free">Free</span> 195<span class=plist-card__go>View 196<svg class="plist-icon" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6"/></svg></span> 197</span></a><a href=/products/relicusroad-signal-line/ class=plist-card data-product-card data-category=signals data-price=0 data-weight=24 data-name="Signal Line" data-text="signal line signals two moving averages that change color from a filter you choose: green for up, salmon for down, grey when there is no verdict."><span class=plist-card__shot><img class=plist-card__icon src=/images/tools/signal_hu_17bbc60fbf248db5.webp srcset="/images/tools/signal_hu_17bbc60fbf248db5.webp 280w, /images/tools/signal_hu_6a372a7e1a1ad0e9.webp 560w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 45vw, (max-width: 1280px) 30vw, 22vw" width=256 height=256 alt aria-hidden=true loading=lazy decoding=async> 198</span><span class=plist-card__body><span class="heading-sm plist-card__title">Signal Line</span> 199<span class=plist-card__desc>Confirm the fast swing and the wider trend agree. Each line changes color for up, down or no clear direction.</span> 200</span><span class=plist-card__foot><span class="plist-card__price plist-card__price--free">Free</span> 201<span class=plist-card__go>View
202<svg class="plist-icon" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6"/></svg></span> 203</span></a><a href=/products/relicusroad-signal-cloud/ class=plist-card data-product-card data-category=signals data-price=0 data-weight=25 data-name="Signal Cloud" data-text="signal cloud signals a price band sized by the gap between the 12 and 26 period emas, smoothed and drawn 21 bars ahead of price."><span class=plist-card__shot><img class=plist-card__icon src=/images/tools/cloud_hu_f403ca28bdbe613a.webp srcset="/images/tools/cloud_hu_f403ca28bdbe613a.webp 280w, /images/tools/cloud_hu_220af2833822bd2d.webp 560w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 45vw, (max-width: 1280px) 30vw, 22vw" width=256 height=256 alt aria-hidden=true loading=lazy decoding=async> 204</span><span class=plist-card__body><span class="heading-sm plist-card__title">Signal Cloud</span> 205<span class=plist-card__desc>See where a pullback may stall before price gets there. One band 21 bars ahead, widening as the trend strengthens.</span> 206</span><span class=plist-card__foot><span class="plist-card__price plist-card__price--free">Free</span> 207<span class=plist-card__go>View 208<svg class="plist-icon" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6"/></svg></span></span></a></div></section></section></div>
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Line numbers count LF bytes from the start of the resource, as the search results do. Vendor segments are library code the classifier recognised; they are stored but not indexed. Bytes are shown as Latin1 characters, one per byte.